Q Poll: McMahon, Murphy in Dead Heat

By Steven Shepard  //  October 4, 2012 | 6:30 a.m.

Amid a robust television ad campaign, Republican Linda McMahon remains neck-and-neck with Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy in the race for the open Senate seat in solidly-Democratic Connecticut, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released early Thursday.

McMahon leads Murphy, the poll shows, 48 percent to 47 percent. Four percent of likely voters are undecided. In the previous poll, conducted in late August, McMahon held a 3-point lead, 49 percent to 46 percent.

McMahon captures 91 percent of Republicans in the Nutmeg State, while Murphy wins only 82 percent of Democrats. Among independent voters, McMahon leads, 52 percent to 43 percent.

Both candidates' image ratings have suffered over the last six weeks, as the campaigns and supporting groups have saturated the airwaves. Now, 45 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of McMahon, and 41 percent view her unfavorably. In late August, 47 percent viewed McMahon favorably, while just 35 percent had an unfavorable opinion.

Only 36 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Murphy, down from 38 percent in August. But the percentage of voters who view Murphy unfavorably rose 10 points during that time, from 30 percent to 40 percent.

The cash advantage held by McMahon, the former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, is reflected in voters' self-reporting about viewing campaign ads. Sixty-four percent of likely voters say they have been seeing McMahon's ads "very often," and 20 percent report seeing them "somewhat often." But only 35 percent say they have been seeing Murphy's ads "very often." And McMahon's campaign has been more successful in conveying their message. Voters are split on whether her campaign is "saying things it believes to be true" or "intentionally misleading people." But more voters say Murphy's campaign is misleading than saying true things. But McMahon does face some headwinds in the state. The poll also shows President Obama with a 12-point lead over Mitt Romney, 54 percent to 42 percent. The poll was conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 2, surveying 1,696 likely voters. The margin of error is plus-or-minus 2.4 percentage points.

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