Poll: Warren Holds Slight Lead Over Brown in Mass.
By Steven Shepard // October 7, 2012 | 5:09 p.m.
Democrat Elizabeth Warren continues to hold an apparent edge in the closely-watched Massachusetts Senate race over the Republican incumbent, Scott Brown, according to a new poll conducted for The Republican newspaper of Springfield, Mass., and released on Sunday. The poll also shows a yawning gender gap, with men favoring Brown and women supporting Warren, who is seeking to become the Bay State's first female senator.
Warren leads Brown in the poll, conducted by the Western New England University Polling Institute, 50 percent to 45 percent. Only 3 percent of likely voters are undecided. Three weeks ago, Warren led Brown by a similar margin, 50 percent to 44 percent. In both cases, Warren's lead is within the margin of error.
Democrats favor Warren, 85 percent to 11 percent, while Brown wins near-unanimous backing among Republicans, 98 percent. Nearly half of likely voters, 46 percent, identify as independents, and they support Brown by a wide margin, 62 percent to 35 percent.
Male voters support Brown, 56 percent to 38 percent. But Warren holds an even more commanding advantage among female voters, 61 percent to 35 percent.
Both candidates have seen their image ratings affected by contentious, televised debates and negative advertising. Brown is viewed favorably by 52 percent and unfavorably by 36 percent, a net-negative change of 6 percentage points.
Warren's negatives are rising faster. The Harvard Law School professor who helped set up a new consumer-protection agency for the federal government is now viewed favorably by 50 percent and unfavorably by 41 percent. Three weeks ago, 53 percent viewed her favorably, compared to 33 percent unfavorably.
A majority, 55 percent, approve of the job Brown is doing in the Senate, but, by a wide margin, voters prefer Democrats control the Senate. Forty-eight percent of likely voters want to see the Senate remain in Democratic hands, compared to only 24 percent who want Republicans to take over.
The poll is the fourth consecutive live-caller survey to show Warren with a narrow lead. The other three -- conducted in late September -- showed Warren ahead by between 4 and 5 points.
The poll was conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 4, surveying 440 likely voters via landline and cell phones. The margin of error is plus-or-minus 4.7 percentage points.
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