Poll: Tight Contests in the Granite State

By Steven Shepard  //  October 12, 2012 | 8:10 a.m.

A new poll released late Thursday continues to show a close fight in the race to succeed retiring New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch, with Republican Ovide Lamontagne inching in front of Democrat Maggie Hassan, whose standing fell slightly. In the state's two closely-watched House races, Republicans can be encouraged by Rep. Frank Guinta's stronger showing, though both freshmen Republicans remain in competitive races.

The WMUR-TV Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, shows Lamontagne moving in front of Hassan, the former Democratic leader in the state Senate, 39 percent to 35 percent. That is well within the poll's margin of error of plus or-minus 4.8 percentage points. More than a quarter of voters were undecided or chose another candidate.

The previous poll, conducted in late September, showed Hassan marginally ahead of Lamontagne, 42 percent to 40 percent. There were fewer voters who were undecided or preferred another candidate last month, 18 percent.

In the state's First Congressional District, Guinta now holds a slight lead over former Democratic Rep. Carol Shea Porter in a rematch of their 2010 race, 45 percent to 35 percent. Though his 10-point margin may look significant, the poll surveyed only 200 likely voters in the district and carries a high margin of error: plus-or-minus 6.9 percentage points. That puts Guinta's lead within the margin.

Last month, it was Shea-Porter who was ahead, 47 percent to 38 percent.

Meanwhile, the race in the state's Second District, which is yet another 2010 rematch, remains close. Democrat Ann McLane Kuster and GOP Rep. Charlie Bass are running neck-and-neck, with Kuster ahead, 38 percent to 35 percent. The size of the subsample in this race was also small -- just 211 likely voters -- and results carry a margin of error of plus-or-minus 6.7 percentage points. The percentage of undecideds in Bass's district increased, from 16 percent last month, to 25 percent now. The poll was conducted Oct. 1-6. The statewide sample consists of 419 likely voters.

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