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Poll: Casey Leads by 9 in Pennsylvania

By Julie Sobel // October 9, 2012 | 9:34 a.m.

Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., holds a 9-point lead over GOP challenger Tom Smith in a new poll released Tuesday morning, though the incumbent falls well short of the 50 percent mark.

Casey has 44 percent of the vote to Smith's 35 percent, according to a Siena College Research Institute poll. Sixteen percent of voters remain undecided a month prior to Election Day.

"Bob Casey has a lead well outside the margin of error over Tom Smith and is ahead in the Philadelphia area as well as in northeastern PA and in the west," said SRI's director Don Levy in a polling memo.

Casey is seen favorably by 40 percent of people, while 34 percent have an unfavorable view of him. Smith has 27 percent favorability to 26 percent unfavorability -- and 47 percent of respondents had no opinion of the businessman, who is a first-time candidate.

The poll also shows a closer presidential race, with President Obama garnering 43 percent support to Mitt Romney's 40 percent, and 12 percent still undecided.

Casey's seat had long been considered relatively safe, but a few recent polls have shown his once-commanding lead significantly whittled, with a late September Quinnipiac poll putting the lead at just 6 point. Casey has been significantly outspent on the airwaves up to this point in the campaign. The poll was conducted Oct. 1-5, and surveyed 545 likely voters. The margin of error is plus-or-minus 4.2 percentage points.