New Poll: Bass, Guinta in Danger of Losing
New Hampshire Republican Reps. Frank Guinta and Charlie Bass are both in serious danger of losing reelection, according to the results of a new, small-sample independent survey released by WMUR-TV Wednesday evening. Guinta trails Democratic ex-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, 47 percent to 38 percent, while Bass is in a statistical tie with repeat challenger Ann Kuster, has 42 percent to his 41 percent.
The University of New Hampshire Survey Center conducted the poll for WMUR-TV from Sept. 27-30. The center surveyed 273 likely voters in Guinta's 1st District and 325 likely voters in Bass's 2nd District. The margins of error were plus-or-minus 5.9 and 5.4 percentage points, respectively.
Earlier Wednesday, the National Republican Congressional Committee released an internal poll showing Guinta leading Shea-Porter 51 percent to 43 percent. That poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies from Sept. 24-25, surveyed 400 likely voters and also found Mitt Romney with a one-point, 47-46 lead over President Obama in the 1st District. But the WMUR/UNH survey has Obama leading Romney 54 percent to 37 percent in the seat and a tied governor's race statewide.
The poll also shows about equal numbers of likely voters have favorable and unfavorable opinions of Guinta. Thirty-eight percent of respondents view him favorably, while 39 percent view him unfavorably; in an August survey, the split was 37/27.
Bass is closer to his opponent than his Republican colleague, but the 2nd District congressman is still mired dangerously far below 50 percent. His unfavorables have also risen since the last WMUR/UNH survey in August: It was 41/31 then, but Bass is underwater in this poll, with 35 percent of respondents viewing him favorably and 43 percent viewing him unfavorably.