Marquette Poll: Thompson 46, Baldwin 45

By Kevin Brennan  //  October 17, 2012 | 1:48 p.m.

Updated at 3:00 p.m.

The Wisconsin Senate race is a dead heat, according to a new Marquette University Law School poll released Wednesday.

The survey shows former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson with a 46 percent to 45 percent advantage over Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin. Six percent of likely voters remain undecided. Thompson's razor-thin edge is well within the survey's margin of error. In the previous poll, conducted in late September, Baldwin led Thompson, 48 percent to 44 percent.

After narrowly escaping the GOP primary in August, Thompson, who has won four gubernatorial elections in the state, began the general election campaign as the favorite. But Thompson ran out of money at the end of the competitive GOP primary, causing his campaign to go dark on television for several weeks. Several polls released in September showed Baldwin with a narrow lead, but the race has tightened with both sides now spending heavily on television.

The poll also shows a tight presidential race in Wisconsin, with President Obama ahead of Mitt Romney, 49 percent to 48 percent. Obama had a significant lead -- 53 percent to 42 percent -- in late September. The poll was conducted after the first presidential debate in Colorado but before Tuesday's debate in New York.

Baldwin and Thompson both suffer from poor favorability ratings. Thirty-seven percent of likely voters view Thompson favorably, while 50 percent view him unfavorably. Similarly, thirty-two percent of respondents have a favorable opinion of Baldwin, while 47 percent have an unfavorable view of the congresswoman.

Both candidates have faced a tidal wave of negative television ads from the opposing campaign and the outside groups spending heavily on both sides. Baldwin and her allies have focused on Thompson's post-gubernatorial career, arguing his work at a Washington, D.C., lobbying firm and on the boards of several corporations reflect a change in priorities from his time as governor. Thompson and the conservative groups have painted Baldwin as too extreme for Wisconsin, arguing she is to the left of Obama and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi on several issues. The attack ads seem to have gained traction on both sides. Asked whether they agree that Thompson "sold out to special interests and isn't working for you anymore," 49 percent of likely voters agreed with the statement while 41 percent disagreed. When asked whether they agree that Baldwin "is one of the most liberal members of Congress and is too liberal for Wisconsin," the results were the same: 49 percent agreed and 41 percent disagreed. The Marquette Law School poll, conducted Oct. 11 through Oct. 14, surveyed 870 likely voters, for a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.4 percentage points. UPDATE: After the Marquette poll was released, Baldwin's campaign unveiled an internal poll Wednesday showing the Democrat with a slight edge. Baldwin leads Thompson 48 percent to 44 percent in the internal. The Feldman Group conducted the poll for Baldwin from Oct. 14 through Oct. 16. It has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.5 percentage points.

Read & Post Comments
Leave A Comment
The National Journal Group has the right (but not the obligation) to monitor the comments and to remove any materials it deems inappropriate.
Comments powered by Disqus
Follow National Journal
About

Staff


Reid Wilson, Editor-in-Chief
Steve Shepard, Executive Editor
Julie Sobel, Editor
Kevin Brennan, Deputy Editor


Disclaimer


On Call editors reserve the right to delete inappropriate comments. The Hotline, National Journal Group, Inc. and Atlantic Media Company are not responsible for the content of the comments that remain.