North Dakota Democratic Senate nominee Heidi Heitkamp leads GOP Rep. Rick Berg by 4 points in the state's tight Senate race, according to a new internal poll conducted for her campaign.
The poll, conducted by the Mellman Group, shows Heitkamp with 48 percent support to Berg's 44 percent, with 7 percent still undecided. The Mellman Group's previous poll conducted for the former Attorney General's campaign, in mid-October, had Heitkamp leading Berg 45 percent ot 42 percent. Most polls have showed a tight race in North Dakota, though a survey released last weekend showed the Republican with a 10-point lead.
The new poll has Heitkamp leading Berg by a large margin among independents -- 53 percent to 30 percent. It also has her beating him in terms of cross-party support: She gets 11 percent of GOP support while he gets 2 percent of Democratic support. In order to win in the GOP-leaning state, Heitkamp needs to beat Berg by a substantial margin among independent voters.
A polling memo also touts Heitkamp's advantage among those who have already voted. Among these respondents, 58 percent support Heitkamp and 34 percent support Berg.
The poll was conducted from October 21-24 -- starting just two days after they completed their previous internal poll -- and surveyed 600 likely voters. It has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points.