Polls: Democratic Candidates Tied in Western Senate Races

By Steven Shepard  //  September 28, 2012 | 4:29 p.m.

Three new live-caller polls out of Arizona, Montana and North Dakota show Democrats running neck-and-neck in Senate contests in states likely to be carried by the Republican presidential nominee, Mitt Romney.

In Arizona, a poll from Portland, Ore.-based Republican pollster Moore Information shows former Surgeon General Richard Carmona within the margin of error against GOP Rep. Jeff Flake, trailing the Republican, 43 percent to 40 percent. Four percent of likely voters support Libertarian candidate Marc Victor, 1 percent choose "none," and 11 percent are undecided. The poll, which also shows Romney only marginally leading the presidential race in the state, surveyed 500 likely voters from Sept. 25-26 and carries a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.4 percentage points.

A new Democratic poll shows Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., with a statistically-insignificant, 2-point lead over Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg, 44 percent to 42 percent. The poll, conducted by Global Strategy Group for the League of Conservation Voters, also shows Libertarian Dan Cox at 7 percent. The Montana poll was conducted Sept. 23-25, surveying 606 likely voters, and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points.

The North Dakota Democratic-Nonpartisan League Party also released a poll Friday, showing Democrat Heidi Heitkamp with a slim lead over Republican Rep. Rick Berg in that state's open-seat Senate race. Eight percent of likely voters are undecided. The poll was conducted Sept. 24-27 by Stone Research Services of Indianapolis. Six hundred likely voters were surveyed, for a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points.

The Montana race was always expected to be among the nation's closest contests this fall, and Democrats became increasingly bullish on their chances in deep-red North Dakota this summer. But taken together, the polls point to Republicans' uphill battle to win the 4 seats necessary to take control of the Senate next year; Republicans could also grab control after Inauguration Day with a net-gain of 3 seats if Paul Ryan becomes vice president. Republicans also received a bit of good news on Friday, when a new Muhlenberg College poll of 427 likely voters in Pennsylvania, conducted Sept. 22-26 for the Morning Call of Allentown, showed GOP businessman Tom Smith closing to within single digits against Democratic Sen. Robert Casey, 44 percent to 36 percent. But the change between the new survey and the previous Muhlenberg College poll two weeks ago showing Casey leading by 12 points is not statistically significant; the poll's margin of error is plus-or-minus 5 percentage points.

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