Poll Shows Scandal-Plagued Tierney Ahead

By Steven Shepard  //  September 12, 2012 | 8:02 a.m.

Updated 8:14 a.m.

Embattled Rep. John Tierney, D-Mass., leads his Republican challenger in a new poll released early Wednesday, but that survey suggests Tierney's support is soft, contributing to his vulnerability.

The poll of likely voters in Massachusetts' 6th District, conducted by the MassINC Polling Group for WBUR-FM, a Boston-based NPR affiliate, shows Tierney leading former state Sen. Richard Tisei, 46 percent to 34 percent. Seven percent of likely voters said they would vote for the Libertarian candidate, Daniel Fishman, while 12 percent chose another candidate or were undecided.

While a 12-point lead is usually considered secure, the poll suggests Tierney's supporters are not yet committed to his candidacy. That matchup includes "leaners" -- that is, those respondents who said initially that they were undecided, but then said they were leaning towards one of the candidates. In the initial matchup question, just 39 percent said they would vote for Tierney, compared to 32 percent for Tisei.

Tierney, whose wife has been convicted of crimes related to her brother's illegal gambling operation, has a mixed image rating, the poll shows. Thirty-five percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of him, compared to 30 percent who view him unfavorably, and 10 percent who have never heard of him. Tisei, who was Republican gubernatorial candidate Charlie Baker's running mate in 2010, has a more positive net-rating -- 29 percent favorable, 13 percent unfavorable -- but more than a quarter of likely voters have not heard of him.

Voters are vaguely aware of the Tierney family's legal woes, according to the poll. Twenty-eight percent say they have heard "a great deal" about "Tierney's family's legal problems," while 29 percent have heard "a fair amount." But 18 percent say they have not heard very much, while 23 percent said they have heard "nothing at all." The competitive nature of the race is causing Tierney, an 8-term member of the House who has been elected with more than two-thirds of the vote in each of his last 6 elections, to go on the offensive. Roll Call reported Tuesday that Tierney launched his first TV ad, a negative spot tying Tisei to national tea party leaders like Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich. YG Action Fund, a Republican-aligned super PAC run by former aides to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, launched a TV ad hitting Tierney on his family's legal troubles last week, just before the WBUR poll went in the field. That attack may resonate somewhat in the district. Likely voters favor President Obama over Mitt Romney, the Bay State's former governor, 47 percent to 37 percent, the poll shows. But crossover voters may present an opportunity for Tisei. Just 29 percent of poll respondents said they were registered Democrats, with the majority, 56 percent, saying they were not enrolled with either party. The poll was conducted Sept. 8-10, surveying 401 likely voters via landline and cellular telephone. The margin of error is plus-or-minus 4.9 percentage points. Scott Bland contributed

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