Poll: Inslee 44, McKenna 41

By Sarah Mimms  //  September 15, 2012 | 2:30 p.m.

A new Elway Poll shows Washington state's fiercely competitve gubernatorial race tightening less than two months before election day. Former Democratic Rep. Jay Inslee holds just a slight lead over Attorney General Rob McKenna, 44 percent to 41 percent, a decrease from his 43 percent to 36 percent advantage in a July Elway poll that was conducted just two weeks before he bested McKenna in Washington's top-two primary. 15 percent of voters remain undecided, compared to 21 percent in the July survey.

The spread between the candidates is not much different than in the August 7 primary, in which Inslee topped McKenna, 47percent to 43 percent.

The survey proves what pundits have been saying for months, that the contest in Washington state is one of the most competitive gubernatorial races in the country. That's good news for McKenna, who is hoping to become Washington's first Republican governor since John Spellman left office in 1985.

The good news for McKenna is two-fold. Not only has the race tightened since he began airing ads in the state - his first ad went up on July 27, less than a week after the July Elway poll was conducted - but he also leads the national Republican ticket in this most recent poll, where Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan trail President Obama and Vice President Biden, 53 to 36 percent.

McKenna's campaign is relying heavily on its ability to attract crossover Obama-McKenna voters in November and has often pointed out that McKenna was the only statewide candidate to outperform Obama in 2008, during his second attorney general bid. McKenna has worked hard to appeal to Obama voters and distance himself from the national Republican ticket, declining to appear at two Seattle-area fundraisers with Paul Ryan earlier this week. And when Obama unsurprisingly endorsed Inslee this week, McKenna's campaign was quick to point out that the president's views on education - a hot-button issue in Washington state this cycle - are actually much closer to McKenna's than to Inslee's.

McKenna's strategy may already be working. The survey shows that Democrats are less enthusiastic about Inslee than Republicans are about McKenna, with 93% of Republicans saying they will support McKenna in November, compared to only 82% of Democrats reporting that they intend to back Inslee. Eight percent of those Democrats already say they will support McKenna, while 11 percent remain undecided. The poll also shows a widening gender gap between McKenna and Inslee supporters, with Inslee holding a 19-point advantage with females voters, while McKenna has a 15-point edge with men. Both men were within 5 points of one another with both genders in Elway's June poll. The jump could be attributed to Inslee's attempts to tie McKenna to the "war on women" national Democrats have been pushing in recent months. To combat the narrative, McKenna released a new 30-second ad this week, touting his work to combat sexual and domestic violence as attorney general and promising to "continue to protect Washington women's and children" as governor. The ad also features McKenna's two daughters, who have appeared frequently, along with his wife and two sons, in his previous ads. The race has attracted a lot of national attention, with Democratic and Republican groups pouring over $10 million into the contest so far. Outside groups on both sides began airing ads this month and neither shows any signs of slowing, particularly if the race remains this close. Inslee and McKenna have each raised over $8.5 million so far, according to finance reports released this week, making the race one of the most expensive in the country. The poll was conducted September 9-12 by Seattle-based Elway Research, surveying 405 registered voters. The margin of error is plus-or-minus 5 percentage points. Some details from the poll were first reported on Friday by the Seattle Times.

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