Poll: Donnelly, Mourdock Tied in Indiana

Indiana's open-seat Senate race remains a dead heat, with Democratic Rep. Joe Donnelly running neck-and-neck with state Treasurer Richard Mourdock, according to a new bipartisan poll released Thursday.

Donnelly leads Mourdock in the poll, conducted for the subscription newsletter Howey Politics Indiana and DePauw University, 40 percent to 38 percent. That is well within the poll's margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.5 percentage points. Libertarian candidate Andrew Horning siphons 7 percent of the vote, the poll shows. The poll was conducted by Fred Yang of the Democratic firm Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group and Christine Matthews, president of GOP polling firm Bellwether Research.

Yang writes for Howey Politics Indiana that while the race is a virtual tie, Donnelly has a few built-in advantages. He has a more positive image rating (24 percent favorable/21 percent unfavorable) than Mourdock (26 percent favorable/32 percent unfavorable). That is particularly true among independent and undecided voters, Yang writes, though many of them "have yet to get a firm grasp of either candidate."

Mourdock has struggled to unite his party after his victory over long-time Sen. Richard Lugar in a divisive primary. Just 60 percent of Lugar supporters say they will vote for Mourdock in the general election; by comparison, 86 percent of Lugar supporters say they will vote for the GOP's presidential ticket. But Donnelly has work to do to persuade Lugar's voters to break with their party: He wins only 15 percent of them, just a tick higher than his party's presidential ticket.

Overall, Mitt Romney leads President Obama in the state, 52 percent to 40 percent; Hoosier voters narrowly awarded their state's 11 electoral votes to Obama in 2008. That suggests the environment tilts toward Mourdock, though he is not yet able to capitalize on it, winning just 71 percent of Republican voters. Donnelly, on the other hand, earns 78 percent of the Democratic vote.

Mourdock is also struggling in the "doughnut counties" surrounding Indianapolis, GOP pollster Matthews says. These counties are home to "a significant chunk of the state's Republican base," and are 20 points more Republican than Democratic. But the race is within the margin of error there, with Mourdock leading by just 4 points. Romney is leading in these counties by 18 points. "Can Richard Mourdock win? Of course," Matthews writes in the Howey Politics Indiana newsletter. "Could he lose? Yes." A slight gender gap was evident in the poll: Mourdock leads among men by 4 points, 42 percent to 38 percent, while Donnelly carries female voters by 6 points, 41 percent to 35 percent. The Senate race is not the only open-seat contest on Indiana ballots this fall, but it is the only one currently competitive. Republican Rep. Mike Pence leads the gubernatorial race over folksy former state House Speaker John Gregg, 47 percent to 34 percent. The poll was conducted Sept. 19-23, though no weekend interviews were conducted on the 22nd or 23rd. The two firms surveyed a total of 800 likely voters.

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