Political Insiders: Don't Bet on Dems Winning House
Will Democrats retake the House? Don't bet on it, according to the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll.
A bipartisan collection of party Insiders expressed deep doubt that the House will change hands next year. Almost every Republican -- 97 percent -- rated the odds as "low." And Democrats weren't much more optimistic: More than half agreed a takeover was unlikely.
On a scale of 0 (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Democrats to take over the House in November? |
||
| Democrats (103 votes) |
Republicans (92 votes) |
|
| CURRENT AVERAGE | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 0-3 | 50.5% | 96.7% |
| 4-6 | 46.7% | 3.3% |
| 7-10 | 2.9% | 0% |
Members of both parties are more doubtful about a change-over than they were when the question was last asked in February. Then, 89 percent of Republicans felt confident they would retain majority status and only 36 percent of Democrats agreed. At the time, 56 percent of Democrats rated their chances as "moderate," while 9 percent said they were "high." Those numbers have dropped to 47 percent and 3 percent, respectively.
"You see signs of the big wave at this point and so far there are none," said one Democratic Insider.
Said a Republican, "Voters may not punish Obama for his sins, but they are not going to empower him with a Democratic House to wreak more havoc."
Democrats need to win a net of 25 seats to regain a majority, a tall task after redistricting left many Republican incumbents in districts safer than the ones they ran in during the mid-term elections. Some Republicans even mocked the suggestion that Democrats have a chance of doing so on November 6.
"The fat lady has finished singing and is eating cake," said one GOP Insider.
Said another, "They would need a tidal wave and that's not happening. Math simply doesn't work for them."
The GOP optimism comes even as their prospects in the presidential race and the battle for the Senate appear to be dimming as President Obama's support rises in most polls. Some Democrats surveyed expressed optimism that the president's surge may yet filter down to the House races.
"As Obama rises, Boehner, Cantor and McCarthy are starting to sweat," said one Democrat.
Another left-leaning insider added, "It's still an uphill battle, but every day that Mitt is Mitt, Democrats' chances improve."
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