Mason-Dixon Poll: Rehberg, Tester Run Close

By Steven Shepard  //  September 23, 2012 | 9:02 a.m.

The Montana Senate race is neck-and-neck, with Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg leading Democratic incumbent Jon Tester by a statistically-insignificant margin in a new poll released Sunday.

The poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for a consortium of Treasure State newspapers, shows Rehberg leading Tester, 48 percent to 45 percent, within the poll's margin of error of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points. One percent of likely voters preferred the libertarian candidate, Dan Cox, and 6 percent are undecided.

Though both candidates win more than 90 percent of their own partisans, Rehberg's slender advantage overall is boosted by a 9-point edge among self-identified independents, 47 percent to 38 percent.

The poll also shows a gender gap: Rehberg leads among men, 53 percent to 39 percent, and Tester leads among female voters, 50 percent to 43 percent.

Both candidates are struggling to maintain positive images amid the barrage of attack ads coming from both sides. Forty percent have a favorable opinion of Tester, who is seeking a second term in the Senate, compared to 36 percent who view him unfavorably. Meanwhile, 44 percent view Rehberg favorably, against 37 percent who have an unfavorable opinion. The poll was conducted Sept. 17-19 for the Billings Gazette, Montana Standard, Helena Independent Record, Missoulian and Ravalli Republic. The poll surveyed 625 likely voters.

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