Missouri Republicans Hope to Anoint McCaskill Replacement

By Julie Sobel  //  August 6, 2012 | 10:53 a.m.

Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., pauses after speaking about the hardships being endured in her state from floods and high gasoline prices, at the Capitol in Washington, Tuesday, May 17, 2011.   (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

No matter which Republican wins Tuesday's Missouri Senate primary, the fall face-off with Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill will be one of the GOP's best pickup opportunities, even as their field is filled with flawed challengers.

McCaskill is the most vulnerable incumbent senatorsup for reelection this year, if polls are to be believed. A late July Mason-Dixon poll showed McCaskill lagging behind any of her three potential opponents -- businessman John Brunner, former Treasurer Sarah Steelman, and Rep. Todd Akin. She is running for reelection in a Republican-trending state that President Obama won't contest in a presidential year. It's not demographically favorable for Democrats either, with nearly one-third of Missouri voters living in rural confines.

That being said, McCaskill's team will certainly be watching the primary returns closely -- the result will affect her general election prospects. And if she faces Akin, her preferred opponent, she can probably thank herself in part for the outcome.

The same Mason-Dixon poll that showed McCaskill trailing the Republicans showed Brunner leading the primary with 33 percent, followed by Steelman at 27 percent, and Akin at 17 percent. And an automated Public Policy Polling survey released Monday shows Brunner holding at 35 percent, Akin at 30 percent and Steelman at 25 percent -- a big surge for Akin in the past week. (It's Hotline policy not to report on robo-polls, but this one released right before the election matches what we've been hearing from the campaigns' internals.) So Brunner goes into Tuesday the frontrunner, but either Steelman or Akin could conceivably overtake him.

Steelman has gotten a big boost recently from Sarah Palin. Palin, coming off a successful string of endorsements capped by Texas Senate primary winner Ted Cruz, is going all-in for Steelman. The former governor of Alaska has touted Steelman in television ads and robocalls, and appeared at a Steelman event Friday night. Another boost for Steelman: she's been underfunded throughout the race, but a pro-Steelman super PAC is now shelling out hundreds of thousands of dollars on an ad campaign supporting her and attacking Brunner.

But Akin has gotten some major outside help recently, too, from Democrats who prefer him as the GOP nominee (while the Mason-Dixon poll showed McCaskill trailing behind all three, the matchup with Akin was closest). McCaskill took a page from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's playbook in July: Reid, in his 2010 reelection campaign, meddled in the GOP primary and helped gaffe-prone tea party favorite (and his favored opponent) Sharron Angle to a victory. In July, McCaskill released television ads targeting each of her potential GOP opponents, but the Akin-focused spot touted Akin's conservative credentials. And the Akin ad ran much more frequently than the commercials hitting Brunner and Steelman. To top it off, last week a radio ad paid for by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee "attacked" Akin in a similar manner ("Todd Akin calls himself the true conservative, but is he too conservative?" asks the ad's narrator). Meanwhile, he may also benefit from outside ads hitting the other two candidates. The Democratic-aligned Majority PAC has directly targeted Brunner in two ads in another attempt to boost Akin. (The congressman and Brunner are both from St. Louis, and each needs to do well there to win. Steelman, from Rolla, has been campaigning hard for the rural vote). The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which supports Brunner, has gone after Steelman in an ad. And Akin is the only candidate to refrain from running negative ads targeting his Republican primary candidates. His stay-above-the-fray approach could benefit him as it may have benefited Nebraska Senate nominee Deb Fischer: When two candidates are slugging it out in a three-way race, a candidate who sticks to a positive, attack-free message holds some appeal. Brunner, having spent close to $8 million of his own money on the race so far, still looks like the man to beat Tuesday, but an upset looks entirely possible. A day out from the primary, it's still anybody's race.

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Reid Wilson, Editor-in-Chief
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