Brown, Casey, Nelson Lead in New Q Polls

By Steven Shepard  //  August 1, 2012 | 6:01 a.m.

Three incumbent Democratic senators, each running in an important presidential battleground state, hold significant leads over their Republican opponents, according to new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times polls released on Wednesday.

In Florida, Sen. Bill Nelson leads Republican Rep. Connie Mack, 47 percent to 40 percent. Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown leads state Treasurer Josh Mandel, 51 percent to 39 percent. And, in Pennsylvania, Sen. Robert Casey has a commanding lead over GOP businessman Tom Smith, 55 percent to 37 percent.

The polls were all conducted among likely voters -- the first time this cycle that Quinnipiac has employed a likely-voter screen. In previous Quinnipiac polls a month ago, Nelson and Mack were neck-and-neck, while Brown and Casey held significant leads.

The surveys also show President Obama leading Mitt Romney by 6 points in Florida and Ohio, and by 11 points in Pennsylvania. Nelson and Mack run slightly behind their parties' respective standard-bearers, while Brown and Casey hold leads larger than the president's in their respective states.

Brown and Casey hold double-digit advantages among self-identified independent voters, while in Florida Republican Mack leads Nelson among independents, 43 percent to 40 percent, a virtual tie. The polls are the first in a series of surveys conducted by Quinnipiac, in cooperation with its new media partners. All three polls were conducted July 24-30. The Florida poll surveyed 1,177 likely voters, 1,193 likely Ohio voters were interviewed and 1,168 likely voters in Pennsylvania were questioned. The margins of error for the Florida and Pennsylvania polls are plus-or-minus 2.9 percentage points for each survey; the margin of error for the Ohio poll is plus-or-minus 2.8 percentage points.

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