After Rep. Chris Gibson, R-N.Y., released an internal poll this morning showing him at 52 percent in New York's 19th Congressional District, Democratic nominee Julian Schreibman has released a poll of his own showing the incumbent at a more-dangerous 42 percent, compared to 32 percent for Schreibman.
Schreibman's poll was conducted by Global Strategy Group from July 18-22 and surveyed 402 likely voters. The margin of error was plus-or-minus 4.9 percentage points.
Gibson still sports a 10-point lead in the Democratic poll, but his support falls into the low- to mid-40s range that's so dangerous for incumbents. The polling memo does note that both Schreibman and Gibson have extremely low name recognition in the district. Schreibman is barely known, with just 19 percent name recognition, while Gibson is known to just 46 percent of voters. (More than half of the seat's constituents are new to Gibson, a freshman, after redistricting.)
Both polls used nearly identical party registration breakdowns mirroring the most recent statistics made available by the state of New York. The Schreibman poll was comprised of 35 percent Republicans and 32 percent Democrats, with the remainder unaffiliated; respondents to Gibson's poll were 34 percent Republican and 31 percent Democratic.