Mason-Dixon Poll: Nelson 47, Mack 42

By Steven Shepard and Kevin Brennan  //  July 13, 2012 | 8:38 a.m.

Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., holds a slight lead over Republican Rep. Connie Mack, 47 percent to 42 percent, according to a new Mason-Dixon poll released Friday.

Nelson's overall advantage is built upon an 11-point lead among independents, 50 percent to 39 percent. Each candidate wins more than 80 percent of their own partisans.

Men tilt to Mack, 48 percent to 41 percent, while Nelson wins female voters, 52 percent to 37 percent. Half of white voters favor Mack, while Nelson wins 41 percent of the white vote. Black voters overwhelmingly support Nelson, 86 percent to 4 percent for Mack. Hispanics are split evenly between the two candidates.

Despite Nelson's incumbency and Mack's family history, both candidates aren't particularly popular, the poll shows. Just 36 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Nelson, compared to 28 percent who view him unfavorably, and 24 percent who say they have a neutral opinion of him. Twelve percent say they don't recognize him.

Mack's favorability is more positive, but still weak; a majority of likely voters either don't recognize him or have a neutral opinion. Thirty percent view him favorably, against 13 percent who have an unfavorable opinion.

Nelson has a huge fundraising advantage over Mack. He more than doubled the Republican's second quarter haul ($1.8 million to $840,000), and the Democrat finished June with $11 million dollars in the bank compared to $1.4 million for Mack.

But conservative outside groups who sense a pickup opportunity in the Sunshine State are doing their best to make up the difference. American Crossroads has reserved more than $6 million in television airtime to oppose Nelson, and casino mogul Sheldon Adelson recently donated $1 million to Freedom PAC, a pro-Mack super PAC. Mack and his allies won't have to spend much to win the GOP nomination. After a series of more high-profile Republican candidates dropped out of the race, former Rep. Dave Weldon and retired Army Col. Mike McCalister are his main competition for the GOP nod, but Mack is expected to cruise to victory in the August 14 primary. The Mason-Dixon poll did not test the primary. The poll was conducted July 9-11 for the Miami Herald, Tampa Bay Times, El Nuevo Herald and two in-state cable news television stations. Mason-Dixon Polling & Research surveyed 800 likely voters, for a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.5 percentage points.

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