A recent internal poll conducted for the campaign of Rep. Chris Gibson, R-N.Y., shows the freshman Republican significantly ahead of his Democratic challenger, despite other indications that Gibson's district is more competitive.
The poll, slated for release, shows Gibson leading attorney Julian Schreibman, 53 percent to 36 percent, in the newly-configured 19th Congressional District. Ten percent of likely voters are undecided, according to the memorandum from Gibson's pollster, Alexandria, Va.-based Public Opinion Strategies.
The memo notes that Gibson enjoys a commanding, 27-point advantage among voters from the old 20th District Gibson currently represents; he defeated then-Rep. Scott Murphy, D-N.Y., by 10 points in 2010. In the new areas of the Hudson Valley-based district, Gibson's lead shrinks to single-digits.
The district became slightly more Democratic during the decennial redistricting process. It was reconfigured earlier this year by a panel of federal judges to take in Democratic-leaning Ulster County, which is now home to around a quarter of the district's voters.
The poll was conducted July 25-26, surveying 400 likely voters, for a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.9 percentage points. The memo from Public Opinion Strategies notes that 34 percent of poll respondents were registered Republicans, compared to 31 percent who were Democrats; those percentages match the latest enrollment statistics from the state Board of Elections.