Three Things to Watch in Arizona's Special Election

By Scott Bland  //  June 12, 2012 | 2:51 p.m.

The polls close at 10 p.m. Eastern time tonight, and soon after we will know whether Democrat Ron Barber, left, an aide to ex-Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, left, or repeat Republican nominee Jesse Kelly will fill the vacant seat in the House of Representatives. (AP Photo/Matt York)

We published a more extensive preview of the special election in Arizona's 8th District, to replace Democratic ex-Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, earlier this week. The polls close at 10 p.m. Eastern time tonight, and soon after we will know whether Democratic ex-Giffords aide Ron Barber or repeat Republican nominee Jesse Kelly will fill the vacant seat in the House of Representatives. Here are a few items to think about as the results start rolling in.

-- The early voting margin: The special has inspired unprecedented levels of early voting. Over 132,000 votes have already been cast, and analysis of the returns suggests that Democratic ballot returns have outpaced their levels of registration in the district, a good sign for Barber. When Giffords beat Kelly in 2010, she actually lost the election-day balloting but built a lead in early voting. Republicans expect more of their voters to turn out today, but if Barber has a large margin in the first reports, he stands a great chance of succeeding her in Congress.

-- Results in the new district lines: Today marks the last day that the boundaries of the 8th District matter, for political purposes. The November general election will take place under slightly altered lines in the renamed 2nd District. That seat loses the portions of Pinal and Santa Cruz counties in the current district along with portions of Pima County, including a chunk south of the San Xavier Native American reservation. If tonight's returns are close, approximating what the results would look like under the new, more Democratic-leaning lines will provide an interesting look at the landscape for November.

-- Special election overreaction: Since they are all we've got at any particular point in time, observers have a tendency to overreact to the results of House special elections. A victory by either side won't augur much of anything for the fall campaign. No matter who wins, national Democrats and Republicans will weigh tonight's results against their expectations and polling and try to figure out which elements of the campaign worked in their favor. Both sides are confident that the focal points of the campaign (preventing changes to Social Security and Medicare for the Democrats, and connecting local Democrats to President Obama and Nancy Pelosi for the GOP) can be applied with success elsewhere; indeed, they already have. So, later on this cycle, both sides will apply lessons they learned in the final matchup between a Democrat and a Republican before November. But in the end, the district is a testing ground, not a fulcrum for a national momentum shift in either direction. The local details surrounding any House race make blanket projections to the national level a difficult exercise, and this is no exception. In the short term, the only tangible national result from the special election is which side of the House of Representatives the winner joins.

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