Reality Check: The Limitations of Clinton's Clout

By Scott Bland  //  June 6, 2012 | 10:37 a.m.

When Democratic Rep. Bill Pascrell won his member-versus-member primary last night over Rep. Steve Rothman in New Jersey's 9th Congressional District, Pascrell became the second Democratic incumbent in a row to win a member-member race with backing from Bill Clinton.

Cue the media hordes praising Clinton's magic touch. And as if another opportunity to divine causation from correlation wasn't good enough, the 9th District provided the juicy added opportunity to compare President Obama unfavorably to his Democratic predecessor, because the current president supported Rothman.

But if Clinton's endorsement was so powerful, former Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez would be celebrating a Democratic primary win of his own in New Mexico's 1st District, and Rep. Silvestre Reyes, D-Texas, would still be looking forward to his ninth term in Congress. In reality, Chavez finished a distant third in a field of three, and Reyes lost his renomination race to a youthful Democratic challenger.

It's not that Clinton's endorsement means nothing; few Democrats can energize a crowd like he does, and his name remains a signal for a few low-information primary voters. But the biggest effect of Clinton's endorsements this cycle has been media hype about his influence.

Endorsements are great fun to follow, but the more important factor Clinton's victorious endorsees had in common was a powerful ground game. Pascrell started his primary at a geographic disadvantage: Fifty-four percent of New Jersey 9th District residents came from Rothman's old seat, compared to just 43 percent for Pascrell. But voters from Passaic County, Pascrell's base, comprised nearly 55 percent of the Democratic primary electorate, and nine-tenths of them voted for Pascrell.

Clinton's weekend get-out-the-vote rally with Pascrell certainly didn't hurt, but in the end, the ex-president was in the Garden State for just a few hours, speaking to citizens already energized enough to turn out for a campaign rally. The time and money Pascrell's campaign put into identifying, canvassing, and turning out his voters was a far more powerful force than Clinton's imprimatur. Same goes for Critz in Pennsylvania's 12th District. Critz and union allies boosted turnout in his section of the seat far beyond its share of the district-wide population. The campaign and its friends used Clinton's support to rally voters, but it wasn't their principle thrust against Rep. Jason Altmire. On the flip side, Clinton made a trip to El Paso, Texas in support of Reyes that was very similar to his recent pro-Pascrell stop in New Jersey. The difference is that Reyes didn't run a great campaign, while Democratic nominee Beto O'Rourke personally introduced himself to thousands of voters during an energetic primary run that included some high-tech voter targeting. And Chavez, in New Mexico, couldn't survive sustained attacks on his record and character when he was a frontrunner months ago. Ultimately, a gold-plated endorsement like Clinton's is a great driver of media attention. But it's a complement, not a substitute, for the things that really make an effective primary campaign.

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