Previewing the Pascrell-Rothman Primary in New Jersey

By Scott Bland  //  June 4, 2012 | 3:31 p.m.

Authorities search along the shores of the Hackensack River in Jersey City, N.J. on Tuesday, Dec. 27, 2005. Searchers are hoping to find the body of a police officer whose emegency vehicle drove off the Lincoln Highway Bridge, background, on Christmas night. (AP Photo/Tim Larsen)   (AP Photo/Tim Larsen)

New Jersey's 9th Congressional District plays host to another member-versus-member House primary on Tuesday. Reps. Bill Pascrell and Steve Rothman face each other in a merged seat after redistricting. The primary between two former friends has been notably bad-tempered, but the specifics of what they've said matters less than what the two candidates are trying to accomplish. Each is trying to replicate a tried-and-true strategy from previous merged seat primaries: Drive up turnout in the home base, and drive down the opponent's percentage of support on the other side of the district.

Both candidates settled early on consistent messaging to peel off the other's support. Pascrell charged Rothman with being a disloyal Democrat because he chose to run against Pascrell instead of a Republican incumbent, Rep. Scott Garrett, in a neighboring district. Rothman also laid claim to the "real Democrat" mantle, by criticizing Pascrell's positions on abortion and a few other subjects and touting his earlier support of same-sex marriage and President Obama -- Rothman was the only New Jersey member of Congress to endorse Obama in the 2008 presidential primary.

The open question is whose strategy will be more effective at peeling off voters from the other's territory. That has been the key factor in the close member-versus-member contests earlier this cycle, even when the winning candidate had fewer old constituents in the new district. In Illinois's 16th District, GOP Rep. Adam Kinzinger defeated fellow Republican Don Manzullo on the strength of an 80-plus percent showing in the district's southern counties, from Kinzinger's old district. Meanwhile, Kinzinger held Manzullo to 72 percent in his base further north. In Pennsylvania's 12th District, Democratic Rep. Mark Critz racked up about 90 percent of the vote in the eastern counties, his home base, while holding Altmire to 70 percent in the western section of the district.

Both Pascrell and Rothman have rolled out endorsements in the other's territory in the past week toward a similar end. But both campaigns are also keeping focused closer at home, to drive turnout in their strongest areas. Pascrell's camp has been particularly focused on Paterson, his hometown in Passaic County, while Rothman has the Bergen County machine on his side in that section of the district. Again, that follows the pattern run by the winning campaigns in Illinois and Pennsylvania. In Critz's Pennsylvania 12th District win, he boosted turnout in his section of the seat to over 31 percent of Democratic primary voters, even though that section of the district had less than a quarter of registered Democrats in the district. Neither Pascrell nor Rothman has quite the get-out-the-vote manpower that Critz -- with his vociferous union backing -- had at his disposal. But both campaigns have teams of volunteers canvassing their strongest neighborhoods to maximize the number of friendly voters who turn out on June 5. That's one reason why Bill Clinton's endorsement of Pascrell may carry more weight than Obama's tacit support for Rothman. While Obama held a photo opportunity with Rothman at the White House last Friday, Clinton actually headlined a get-out-the-vote rally for Pascrell and fired up his supporters in Paterson. Member-versus-member primaries have been regional affairs this far, and there is no reason to expect that to change Tuesday night. The winner will consolidate his geographic base more than the other, and the loser will be left wondering what might have been if turnout operations had been better.

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