Poll: Warren Still Ties Brown, But Negatives Rise

By Steven Shepard  //  June 2, 2012 | 9:39 a.m.

Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., remains in a statistical dead heat with his almost-certain, embattled Democratic challenger, Elizabeth Warren, according to a new Boston Globe poll conducted mostly before Warren admitted she told past academic employers she was a Native American.

The poll, appearing in the Globe's Saturday editions and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, shows Brown leading Warren, 39 percent to 37 percent, with a quarter of voters saying they are undecided or prefer another candidate. Brown's lead is not statistically significant; the poll's margin of error is plus-or-minus 3.8 percentage points.

Brown wins more than four-in-five Republicans, while Warren captures fewer than two-thirds of registered Democrats. Independents, who outnumber Democrats and Republicans (though not the two parties combined) tilt heavily to Brown, 48 percent to 25 percent.

Overall, just 55 percent of likely voters say they have definitely decided for whom they will vote, while 14 percent are leaning toward a candidate and 32 percent say they are still trying to decide.

In the previous Boston Globe poll, conducted in late March, Brown led Warren by an identical, two-point margin, 37 percent to 35 percent.

But while Warren remains neck-and-neck with Brown, the campaign -- along with the ongoing scandal surrounding whether Warren improperly claimed Native American heritage to advance her academic career -- has taken its toll on the Democrat and former consumer advocate. In the March poll, the percentage of likely voters who had a favorable opinion of Warren (47 percent) outnumbered the percentage with an unfavorable opinion (23 percent) more than two-to-one. That gap has narrowed over the past two months: Now, 48 percent have a favorable opinion of Warren, and 32 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

Brown's image rating over that time has remained constant: 55 percent have a favorable opinion, and 30 percent view him favorably, compared to a 54 percent/29 percent split in late March. Seven-in-ten likely voters say they are at least "somewhat aware" of the controversy surrounding Warren's heritage, though, overall, 72 percent of voters (including more than half of Brown supporters) say it will have no impact on their vote. (Notably, the poll was conducted over an extended time period, from May 25-31. Warren acknowledged for the first time late on May 30 that she told Harvard University and the University of Pennsylvania that she was Native American, meaning that the vast majority of interviews were conducted prior to this admission.) Warren will likely be buoyed by the presidential race in the Democratic bastion, even if former Republican Gov. Mitt Romney has narrowed the race somewhat. President Obama leads Romney, 46 percent to 34 percent, with 19 percent undecided or preferring another candidate. Two months ago, Obama led Romney by a 16-point margin in the Bay State. Brown wins just 8 percent of voters who say they will vote for Obama in the presidential election, but he holds a more than two-to-one advantage among those still undecided on the top of the ticket. The poll surveyed 651 likely voters via landline and cellular telephone.

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