House Democrats Suffer Setback in California

By Scott Bland  //  June 6, 2012 | 8:08 a.m.

If current results in California hold, Democrats will be left without a general election candidate in one of their biggest House targets this November. It's just not the one people had their eyes on before Tuesday's all-party, top-two primary.

With 100 percent of precincts reporting in California's 31st District, two Republicans -- Rep. Gary Miller and state Sen. Bob Dutton -- lead a field of six candidates with 27 and 25 percent of the vote, respectively. Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar, the Democratic favorite, languished in third place with 23 percent.

The Associated Press has yet to call the primary, and just over a thousand votes separate Dutton and Aguilar, but Aguilar's likely failure to advance to the general election is a stunning blow to national Democrats, who tabbed Aguilar to win a seat that gave President Obama over 55 percent of its presidential vote in 2008. Aguilar was one of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's touted "Red to Blue" candidates and a centerpiece in Democrats' plans to take advantage of favorable redistricting and population trends in California to vault back toward the House majority. Democrats now likely have to cede a favorable district months before Election Day.

While Miller and Dutton were the only two Republicans in the primary, three other Democrats split votes with Aguilar, especially Justin Kim, who finished fourth with 13 percent. Vote-splitting and lagging turnout hurt Democrats throughout the state, though the effect mostly hit candidates hoping to finish second and set up Democrat-versus-Democrat general elections in ultra-liberal districts.

In the 2nd District, north of San Francisco, Republican Daniel Roberts has sneaked into second place by about 1,000 votes and with 15 percent, ahead of three Democrats who were vying to compete with Democratic Assemblyman Jared Huffman in the general election. In the strongly Democratic 51st District, in San Diego, Denise Moreno Ducheny was expected to face fellow Democrat Juan Vargas in the general election, but she is currently in third place, five points behind Republican Michael Crimmins with all precincts reporting.

(A recap of earlier California returns, including the matchup between Democratic Reps. Howard Berman and Brad Sherman in the 30th District, is here.)

On the other hand, young Democratic challenger Eric Swalwell advanced to the general election in the Bay Area's 15th District against Rep. Pete Stark, D-Calif. Stark took 42 percent of the primary vote to Swalwell's 36 percent, setting up one of only a few competitive general elections in Stark's 20-term career. Democratic turnout was also strong enough to prevent another disaster for the party in California's 26th District, where Assemblywoman Julia Brownley looks likely to advance to the general election. Democratic-aligned outside groups spent over $1 million boosting Brownley, who entered the race late, over independent Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks. That result would have left Democrats without a general election candidate in another Obama-friendly Southern California seat. Republican state Sen. Tony Strickland got 44 percent of the primary vote to 27 percent for Brownley and 19 percent for Parks; three other Democrats took 10 percent combined. Strickland is one of the National Republican Congressional Committee's touted "Young Gun" candidates. Overall, the favored candidates of national Republicans did not have trouble advancing to the general. Strickland's fellow Young Gun Ricky Gill advanced easily in the 9th District, where he'll take on Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney in the fall, and GOP Colusa County Supervisor Kim Vann also made it to the general election in Democratic Rep. John Garamendi's 3rd District. Former Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado also advanced easily in Democratic Rep. Lois Capps's 24th District. Two key races remain muddled a morning after the voting. In the open, heavily Republican 8th District, three Republicans and a Democrat are bunched within 540 votes of each other at the top of the returns, with GOP Assemblyman Paul Cook currently in the lead. In the 52nd District, Scott Peters is currently in second place but less than 700 votes ahead of fellow Democrat Lori Saldana. They are vying for the right to oppose GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray in November.

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