Walker Keeps Slight Lead in New Marquette Poll

By Steven Shepard  //  May 30, 2012 | 2:05 p.m.

Wisconsin Republican Gov. Scott Walker has retained a slight lead over his Democratic rival in next week's recall election, according to a new Marquette Law School poll released on Wednesday.

Walker's lead over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett is 7 percentage points, 52 percent to 45 percent. That is virtually unchanged from earlier this month, when Walker led Barrett, 50 percent to 44 percent.

Marquette Law School visiting professor Charles Franklin, who directs the poll, noted that most of the interviews with voters were conducted prior to last Friday's debate; the poll was conducted May 23-26. Franklin also said that Walker's advantage is just barely inside the poll's margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.0 percentage points. But, Franklin said, there is an equal chance that Walker's lead over Barrett is nearly 15 percentage points as there is that Barrett actually leads the race.

Over the past few weeks, Democrats have released a handful of polls showing the race slightly closer, with Barrett running neck-and-neck with Walker. The previous Marquette Law School poll was conducted May 9-12, and Democrats said that the most recent partisan polls reflected the uptick in television advertising from Barrett and his allies.

But, according to the new Marquette Law School poll, the Democratic attacks have failed to move the needle. In addition to the static ballot test, Walker's current approval rating among all registered voters (51 percent) is statistically unchanged from earlier this month (50 percent). And the percentage of Wisconsin voters who have a favorable opinion of Walker (51 percent) is virtually identical to the previous poll (50 percent).

Barrett's numbers have improved slightly, though these remain within the margin of error as well: Now, 41 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Barrett, compared to 37 percent earlier this month. Forty-six percent of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Walker, unchanged from last month (45 percent). The poll does contain improved numbers for Democrats in the presidential race. The previous survey showed President Obama running neck-and-neck with Mitt Romney. But Obama has edged in front of Romney in the current poll. He now leads among all voters, 52 percent to 40 percent, up from a 2-point lead earlier this month. Among likely voters in the recall election, Obama leads Romney by 8 points, 51 percent to 43 percent; the two candidates were tied among the universe of likely recall voters earlier this month. The new Marquette Law School poll was conducted May 23-26, surveying 720 registered voters. The margin of error for the full poll is plus-or-minus 3.7 percentage points. Of those registered voters, 600 said they were "absolutely certain" to vote in the June 5 recall election, slightly fewer who said they were likely to vote in the November general election.

Read & Post Comments
Leave A Comment
The National Journal Group has the right (but not the obligation) to monitor the comments and to remove any materials it deems inappropriate.
Comments powered by Disqus
Follow National Journal
About

Staff


Reid Wilson, Editor-in-Chief
Steve Shepard, Executive Editor
Julie Sobel, Editor
Kevin Brennan, Deputy Editor


Disclaimer


On Call editors reserve the right to delete inappropriate comments. The Hotline, National Journal Group, Inc. and Atlantic Media Company are not responsible for the content of the comments that remain.