The open 5th District is a more traditional tossup. While Bucshon has an advantage in his seat, the crowded race to replace GOP Rep. Dan Burton is murky. Repeat candidate John McGoff has tea party credentials, but ex-Rep. David McIntosh has strong support from some major national conservative groups, including the Club for Growth. Part of what makes the race so unpredictable is that both candidates appeal to groups backing Mourdock. Republicans could also choose former U.S. Attorney Susan Brooks, who has had some success with a Mourdock-like strategy of questioning McIntosh's residency. (He lived and worked in the D.C. area after his stint in Congress.) Marion Mayor Wayne Seybold is the fourth Republican with a shot at the nomination -- he is the only candidate from the northern part of the district, and he has local budget cutting experience to tout.
The third interesting primary in Indiana comes in the 6th District, to replace Republican Rep. Mike Pence. Luke Messer, formerly a state party official and a state legislator, is the assumed favorite, but Travis Hankins's impressive grassroots organization threatens his status in a state primary where the grassroots has jumped in the drivers' seat. Among Messer's advantages, though, is that a handful of candidates, including former Senate candidate Don Bates, are competing for the more anti-establishment vote.