Previewing Indiana's House Primaries

By Scott Bland  //  May 7, 2012 | 2:11 p.m.

The Republican presidential primary may be over, but that doesn't mean up-ballot GOP races will cease to affect House primaries. The battle between Sen. Richard Lugar and Treasurer Richard Mourdock for the Republican Senate nomination will definitely bleed into three big Republican House primaries Tuesday; the extent will help determine who advances.

Besides congressmen running in member-versus-member primaries, six incumbents have won less than 60 percent of the vote in House primaries thus far. Fully half of those endangered members were from Alabama and Mississippi, where conservative voters turned out en masse to vote for Rick Santorum on the presidential primary ballot.

The first place to look for a "Mourdock effect" would be in his home 8th District. Freshman Rep. Larry Bucshon had allayed fears of an upset with a more energetic campaign this spring, but tea party activist Kristi Risk is still dangerous to him. Risk finished fewer than 2,000 votes behind Bucshon in a crowded, open GOP primary in 2010, and now the two are going head-to-head. Risk's frugal, grassroots-focused campaign is difficult to judge even from up close, and no one can be sure Bucshon will press home his many advantages (chiefly fundraising and name recogntion, all tied up in his incumbency) until ballots are cast Tuesday. Risk's greatest advantage is that Mourdock's campaign has ginned up tremendous enthusiasm among the activist types that she needs to turn out, and the district is historically attuned to its activists.

The open 5th District is a more traditional tossup. While Bucshon has an advantage in his seat, the crowded race to replace GOP Rep. Dan Burton is murky. Repeat candidate John McGoff has tea party credentials, but ex-Rep. David McIntosh has strong support from some major national conservative groups, including the Club for Growth. Part of what makes the race so unpredictable is that both candidates appeal to groups backing Mourdock. Republicans could also choose former U.S. Attorney Susan Brooks, who has had some success with a Mourdock-like strategy of questioning McIntosh's residency. (He lived and worked in the D.C. area after his stint in Congress.) Marion Mayor Wayne Seybold is the fourth Republican with a shot at the nomination -- he is the only candidate from the northern part of the district, and he has local budget cutting experience to tout. The third interesting primary in Indiana comes in the 6th District, to replace Republican Rep. Mike Pence. Luke Messer, formerly a state party official and a state legislator, is the assumed favorite, but Travis Hankins's impressive grassroots organization threatens his status in a state primary where the grassroots has jumped in the drivers' seat. Among Messer's advantages, though, is that a handful of candidates, including former Senate candidate Don Bates, are competing for the more anti-establishment vote.

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