Hotline Sort: The Freshman GOP Defectors

By Josh Kraushaar  //  May 18, 2012 | 8:04 a.m.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. The NRCC outraises the DCCC in April, Crossroads GPS is engaged in ruby-red Nebraska, and Mitt Romney goes up with his first general election ad, telling voters what he'd do as president. Meanwhile, Stephen Breyer is one unlucky Supreme Court justice. Here's today's Sort:

10. Talk about bad luck: Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer's house was broken into this month - the second time he's been the victim of a home-invasion crime. Back in February, he was robbed when a man carrying a machete entered his Caribbean vacation home.

9. A growing number of Republican freshman are declaring their independence from Grover Norquist's Americans for Tax Reform, Politico reports, saying they don't plan on signing the group's anti-tax pledge. The mavericks include many members facing competitive re-election campaigns, including Rep. Scott Rigell, R-Va. and Reid Ribble, R-Wis. Even outspoken conservative Rep. Allen West, R-Fla. spoke out against the group's pledge, saying: "I don't care if he has my name on his website, it's meaningless. I think my voting record speaks for itself."

8. For the first time since October 2011, the National Republican Congressional Committee outraised its Democratic counterpart over a monthly period. In April, the NRCC brought in $6.9 million to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's $6.48 million. The Republican House campaign committee has an overall cash-on-hand edge, ending April with $31.3 million in the bank compared to the DCCC's $25 million.

7. Republicans are betting energy issues will be potent in the special election for the seat of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz. The Republican nominee, Jesse Kelly, is up with a new ad attacking Democrat Ron Barber for supporting cap-and-trade policies.

6. Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., has found a cause that he'll likely be touting in his re-election bid this year: Assessing higher capital gains taxes against wealthy Americans who become citizens of other countries. Casey took up legislation with Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., in light of Facebook co-founder Eduardo Saverin renouncing his U.S. citizenship, and moving to Singapore. Co-sponsoring the legislation is a savvy way to bolster his connection with working-class voters - a key demographic in the Senate race.

5. Crossroads GPS is going up with an ad in the Nebraska Senate race against former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey, and one word is prominent throughout the 30-second spot: bailout.

"Bob Kerrey supported the Wall Street bailout, while serving on the board of a company that tried to exploit it. Kerrey's company tried a bureaucratic ploy to get bailout funds, but the ploy failed... from Bailout Bob Kerrey, it's Wall Street ways, not Nebraska values." Kerrey is running against Republican state Sen. Deb Fischer, who won a surprising upset in this week's GOP primary.

The GOP playbook against Kerrey, running in a deeply-conservative state, is to hit him for spending much of the last decade in New York City as head of the New School. This spot adds an ideological element to that equation.

Politico, which first reported the ad, noted that it cost $260,000 to air statewide, and will be seen on broadcast and cable in the Omaha, Lincoln, Scottsbluff, North Platte, Denver and Sioux City markets.

4. Former President George W. Bush wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal today, laying out a global freedom agenda. "America does not get to choose if a freedom revolution should begin or end in the Middle East or elsewhere. It only gets to choose what side it is on," Bush writes. "It takes courage to ignite a freedom revolution. But it also takes courage to secure a freedom revolution through structural reform. And both types of bravery deserve our support." Bush has been keeping a low profile since leaving office, but has been outspoken about the need to spread democracy and freedom abroad. While he hasn't involved himself in the presidential contest, the op-ed serves as a subtle contrast to the Obama administration, which has placed less emphasis on democracy promotion in its foreign policy agenda. 3. The super PAC headed by businessman Joe Ricketts is sharply denying that they had any involvement in pitching an advertising campaign tying President Obama to his former pastor, Jeremiah Wright. Ending Spending Action Fund super PAC spokesman Brian Baker said the plan by GOP adman Fred Davis was one of many solicited by the group, and it was an immediate no-go. "We run an organization based on fiscal responsibility. They know we asked for a document based on ending spending, fiscal responsibility and jobs in the economy. This is far afield from that," Baker said on MSNBC's "Morning Joe." Baker reiterated on the show that the super PAC's focus is entirely on spending issues, and the Wright pitch was inconsistent with those values. Meanwhile, Ricketts' involvement in the campaign is prompting Chicago Mayor (and former Obama chief of staff) Rahm Emanuel to play hardball with the Chicago Cubs owner. It could mean plans for Wrigley Field's renovation could be at risk. 2. A new Sachs-Mason Dixon poll shows Romney with a narrow lead over President Obama, 47 to 44 percent. Some interesting crosstabs: Obama holds only a six-point lead among women voters, 47 to 41 percent, while Romney leads among independents, 47 to 41 percent. And Romney's base looks to be seniors, leading among 50-and-older voters 51 to 39 percent, while Obama leads the under-50 set by seven points, 49 to 42 percent. 1. The Romney campaign is up with its first general election ad, telling voters his plans in the first weeks of a Romney administration - approve the Keystone XL pipeline, repeal President Obama's health care law, and introduce tax cuts and tax reforms. The 30-second ad is airing in Iowa, Ohio and Virginia - three of the biggest battleground states. Per NBC's Domenico Montanaro, the ad is up in seven markets: Davenport, IA; Des Moines, IA; Roanoke, VA; Richmond, VA; Norfolk, VA; Cincinnati, OH; and Cleveland, OH. Romney is also up with a Spanish-language version of the spot. Scott Bland contributed to this report

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