Dewhurst is the clear frontrunner in the Republican primary, but a state election protocol gives Cruz, who the Club has endorsed, a fighting chance. If a candidate does not get 50 percent of the vote in the May 29 primary, a July 31 runoff is triggered for the top two finishers.
According to a poll from a pro-Dewhurst group released on Tuesday, Dewhurst is hovering
around the 50 percent threshold.
The primary, twice postponed because of a legal spat over the state's new congressional map, falls the day after Memorial Day Weekend, and is expected to attract low turnout. A runoff would be an even lower turnout affair, increasing Cruz's chances and leveling the playing field, rendering Dewhurst's millions of dollars less potent in a race for a smaller pool of loyal voters.
The Club spent $1.45 million on TV and radio ads against Lugar. Due to the higher price of media buys in the Lone Star State, if the group is equally convinced it can beat Dewhurst, the result should be millions of dollar in ad buy investments.