Five Takeaways from Brown-Warren Poll

By Josh Kraushaar  //  April 1, 2012 | 10:29 a.m.

Senate polls aren't particularly predictive at this stage of an election, and today's Boston Globe survey showing a dead heat between Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., and Democrat Elizabeth Warren (Brown 37, Warren 35) is indicative of how close this race should be. But there are some important nuggets in the poll that give us clues on the trajectory of the nationally-watched Senate race.

1. Working-class voters are sticking with Brown, for now. For Warren to win, the self-proclaimed consumer advocate needs to win over the working-class voters who flocked to Brown over Martha Coakley in the 2010 special election. So far, though, they view Brown more favorably than any other economic demographic. He leads Warren among the group, 34 to 25 percent, which is responsible for his overall lead against her. But many are also undecided.

2. It's going to be close. The most useful crosstab in the survey is looking at the voters who have definitely made up their minds. Among that group - just under half of those surveyed -- Brown holds a narrow 51-to-48 percent edge over Warren. It's unlikely this race will be decided by more than that three-point margin.

3. Martha Coakley is the most popular politician in Massachusetts. For the Democrats who blamed Coakley's campaign and not the issues dogging President Obama at the time of the special election , this poll provides a useful corrective. She's the most popular politician in the state of Massachusetts, with 62 percent viewing her favorably and 23 percent viewing her unfavorably. The poll always found her with strong favorables - even in at the heat of the Senate campaign in January 2010, 61 percent of Massachusetts voters viewed her positively, with just 26 percent negatively.

4. Gender gap huge in Massachusetts. The gender gap in Massachusetts is significant: 64 percent of female Massachusetts voters approve of President Obama's job performance, compared just 48 percent of men approving. Warren has a strong 52/18 fav/unfav with women, but a more middling 41/29 fav/unfav with men. Brown's favorability with men is 59/26, with his fav/unfav with women at 50/32. Warren will need to mobilize the women's vote, and she's already received support from high-profile allies, like EMILY's List. 5. Warren's got the Harvard vote locked up Most voters said they don't view Warren's academic background as a negative, but it's clear her base of support comes from the academy. Brown leads Warren among those with a high-school education or less (45 percent-24 percent), some college (45 percent-27 percent), college graduates (35 percent-32 percent), but Warren holds a significant 50 percent-28 percent edge among post-graduate students. The Globe's telephone poll of 544 randomly selected likely voters was taken March 21-27, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

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