Q Poll: McMahon Leads Shays, But Weaker Against Dems

By Steven Shepard  //  March 22, 2012 | 6:00 a.m.

CORRECTION: The previous version of this post incorrectly stated Bysiewicz's title. She is the former secretary of state.

Linda McMahon would lead former Rep. Christopher Shays in the race for the Republican nomination to succeed retiring Sen. Joseph Lieberman, ID-Conn., but McMahon would trail the two top Democratic candidates, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday. The poll also shows that Shays would be a much stronger general election candidate, tying both Rep. Christopher Murphy, D-Conn., and former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz.

McMahon, the former World Wrestling Entertainment executive who was her party's Senate nominee two years ago, leads Shays among Republican voters, 51 percent to 42 percent. Six percent of GOP voters are undecided. That is closer than the previous poll, conducted last September, when McMahon led Shays by 15 percentage points.

Meanwhile, the Democratic primary remains much more unsettled, according to the poll. Murphy leads Bysiewicz, 37 percent to 25 percent. Four percent of Democratic voters prefer state Rep. William Tong, and a whopping 29 percent are undecided.

Both main Democratic candidates perform similarly in general election matchups, with Murphy running slightly stronger. McMahon trails both candidates by double-digits, losing to Murphy by 15 points (52 percent to 37 percent) and Bysiewicz by 10 (49 percent to 39 percent). But Shays ties both candidates, trailing Murphy by one point and leading Bysiewicz by the same, scant margin. While Murphy leads McMahon among independent voters by 15 points, and Bysiewicz leads her by 9, Shays best both Democrats among independents by high-single-digit margins.

Murphy and Shays are the two most popular candidates. Forty-seven percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Shays, compared with 13 percent who have an unfavorable opinion. Murphy's numbers are similar: 40 percent favorable, versus 15 percent unfavorable.

Voters are split on McMahon: 40 percent have a favorable opinion of her, while 44 percent have an unfavorable opinion. McMahon's favorability rating lags among women (36 percent favorable, 44 percent unfavorable); McMahon's campaign has been touting the candidate's concerted outreach efforts to women this time around. McMahon's favorabiity ratings are strong among Republicans, 74 percent of whom have a favorable opinion of McMahon, compared to 16 percent who have an unfavorable opinion. Shays' numbers among Republicans are slightly weaker: 60 percent favorable, 8 percent unfavorable. Whichever candidates win their respective parties' nominations, Democrats can expect a boost at the top of the ticket, according to the poll. A majority of voters approve of President Obama's job performance, and Obama leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by a wide margin, 53 percent to 37 percent. The Quinnipiac poll was conducted March 14-19, surveying 1,622 registered voters, for a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.4 percentage points. The overall sample includes 640 Democrats and 429 Republicans; the margins of error for those subsamples are plus-or-minus 3.9 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively.

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