Suffolk Poll Isn't All Good News For Scott Brown

By Steven Shepard  //  February 17, 2012 | 3:32 p.m.

Sometimes, you have to take the bad with the good.

On its face, the new Suffolk University/WHDH-TV poll released late Thursday night is good news for Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., who leads his chief Democratic rival, Harvard University professor and consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren, by nine percentage points. Other public surveys show Warren -- at worst -- running even with Brown, including a separate poll released earlier this week.

But the new Suffolk poll also shows some longer-term slippage for Brown on other questions, including a slight decline in both his personal popularity and the percentage of Massachusetts voters who believe he deserves to be reelected.

The poll represented Boston-based Suffolk University's first survey in Massachusetts since last April, so they had never tested a Brown-Warren matchup. In the previous poll, 58 percent of voters said they had a favorable opinion of Brown. In the new poll, Brown's favorable rating has slid to 52 percent, dropping from 41 percent to 32 percent among Democrats and slipping from 65 percent to 60 percent among independents. The percentage of voters who have an unfavorable opinion of Brown has risen accordingly, from 22 percent last April, to 28 percent now.

Brown's reelect numbers have suffered a similar decline, according to Suffolk's data. Now, 45 percent of Bay State voters say Brown deserves to be reelected, while 39 percent say it is "time to give someone else a chance." Last April, 55 percent of voters said Brown deserved reelection, while only 29 percent said he did not.

Brown has bled support among Democrats: The percentage of Democrats who say Brown deserves reelection has declined from 38 percent last April, to 20 percent now. His decline among independents -- from 62 percent to 54 percent -- has not been as steep.

Massachusetts is a unique state: In the Suffolk poll, like the WBUR-FM/MassInc. poll released earlier in the week, the majority of voters identify as independents. Independents favor Brown in the Suffolk poll by a lopsided, 32-point margin. Brown's strength among independents -- and the necessity for him to maintain strong support among those voters -- makes his recent strategy to co-sponsor an amendment introduced by Sen. Roy Blunt, which would exempt health care providers from portions of the health care law violating their conscience, a risky decision, as it may alienate middle of the road voters in the blue state. Independents made up around 40 percent of the 2008 Massachusetts electorate, according to exit polls, with Obama and Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., each winning majorities of that group. But those were blowout victories. Warren needs only to close the gap slightly to inch closer to Brown: The WBUR/MassInc poll showed her leading Brown by three percentage points despite trailing him by 21 points among independents. That a poll shows Brown leading Warren is certainly welcome news for his campaign, but the trend lines on questions other than the head-to-head matchup show a senator who has lost some ground over the past 10 months -- particularly among the crossover voters Brown needs to win in deep-blue Massachusetts.

Read & Post Comments
Leave A Comment
The National Journal Group has the right (but not the obligation) to monitor the comments and to remove any materials it deems inappropriate.
Comments powered by Disqus
Follow National Journal
About

Staff


Reid Wilson, Editor-in-Chief
Steve Shepard, Executive Editor
Julie Sobel, Editor
Kevin Brennan, Deputy Editor


Disclaimer


On Call editors reserve the right to delete inappropriate comments. The Hotline, National Journal Group, Inc. and Atlantic Media Company are not responsible for the content of the comments that remain.