Kaine, Allen Deadlocked in Va. Senate Race

By Steven Shepard  //  February 8, 2012 | 6:00 a.m.

Updated at 1:14 p.m.

A new Quinnipiac University poll out early Wednesday continues a popular trend: former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine and former GOP Sen. George Allen are still neck-and-neck in the race to succeed Sen. Jim Webb, D-Va.

The poll shows Kaine leading Allen, who lost the Senate seat to Webb six years ago, by statistically-insignificant one point, 45 percent to 44 percent. Twelve percent of voters say they would vote for another candidate, are undecided or would not vote at all.

Each candidate cleans up among members of their own respective parties -- Kaine takes 90 percent of Democrats, while Allen holds 89 percent of Republicans -- and Kaine leads by a scant, four-point margin among independents. Among those voters with a college degree, Kaine leads by 15 percentage points, while Allen leads among those without a degree by 7 points.

This is the fifth time since June of last year that Quinnipiac has tested the Senate race, and they have yet to find either candidate leading by more than two percentage points (Allen led Kaine in a mid-December poll, 44 percent to 42 percent). Additionally, a poll from Mason-Dixon Polling & Research shared with Hotline On Call last month showed the two candidates dead even.

The poll also shows a slight bump for President Obama in the commonwealth, which could be a boon to Kaine in his incredibly tight race. Obama's approval rating ticked up four percentage points since mid-December, and he now holds a slight, four-point lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 47 percent to 43 percent. In mid-December, Romney led Obama by two points. "Kaine's standing in the Senate race will almost certainly be tied to Virginia's view of the president," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Politics is a team game and when the captain of the blue tram improves his standing, the rest of the team also benefits," Brown added. The poll was conducted Feb. 1-6, surveying 1,544 registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points.

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