Q Poll: Mack, Nelson Neck-and-Neck in Florida

By Steven Shepard  //  January 11, 2012 | 6:00 a.m.

Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson and Republican Rep. Connie Mack remain locked in a neck-and-neck race in Florida's Senate race, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released early on Wednesday.

Nelson leads Mack by a single point, 41 percent to 40 percent, well within the poll's margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent. Nineteen percent of voters said they were undecided, preferred another candidate or would not vote.

That is virtually unchanged from late October and early November, shortly after it was reported that Mack had reversed course and intended to challenge Nelson, when the incumbent led Mack by just two points.

Nelson wins 77 percent of Democrats in the latest poll, while Mack holds 82 percent of Republicans. Independent voters tilt to Nelson, 44 percent to 33 percent.

(The poll surveyed slightly more Republicans (32 percent of the total sample) than Democrats (29 percent). In the 2010 midterm elections, the percentages of Republicans (36 percent) and Democrats (36 percent) were equal, according to exit polls. Exit polls from the 2008 election show Democrats with a three-point edge in party identification over Republicans.)

Mack is miles ahead of the rest of the GOP field in the primary, though he remains under the critical 50-percent threshold. Thirty-nine percent of registered Republicans say they would vote for Mack in the primary, while no other candidate break double-digits: Former Sen. George LeMieux and retired Army Col. Mike McCalister, each with 6 percent, lead the GOP also-rans.

Pluralities of all registered voters have favorable opinions of both Nelson and Mack, but significant percentages say they do not know enough about each candidate to form an opinion, even of Nelson, a two-term Senator, former statewide officeholder and one-time astronaut-Congressman. Forty-one percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Nelson, compared to 23 percent who view him unfavorably. But 35 percent say they haven't heard enough about him to have an opinion. Mack's favorable-unfavorable spread is also nearly positive-20 points, as well: 32 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Mack, whose father held the Senate seat Nelson currently occupies, and 13 percent have an unfavorable opinion. A majority, 54 percent, say they haven't heard enough about him. But Nelson could his fortunes tied to those of his party's standard-bearer, President Obama. According to the poll, a majority of Florida voters don't think Obama deserves reelection, and the president narrowly trails GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney by three points. The Quinnipiac poll was conducted Jan. 4-8, surveying 1,412 registered voters.

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