Democrats Lead Republicans by 11 Points in Generic Ballot
Today's United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll showed Democrats with an 11-point lead over Republicans in a generic ballot question asked to registered voters. When asked if they would "rather see the Republicans keep control" of the House or see "the Democrats win enough seats to take over control of the House," 48 percent chose the Democrats, and 37 percent chose the GOP.
At a press conference last week, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel was asked, essentially, if President Obama was going to be a drag on Democratic efforts to take back the House of Representatives. Israel argued that House elections would be fought on independent terms. "We are creating our own climate, our own battle spaces," he said. That may change when the campaign swings into gear and Republicans and outside groups try tying Democrats to the president again, but for now, that independent climate is why Democrats hold a big generic ballot lead less than 10 months out.
Obama also has an eight-point generic ballot lead in the poll, but House Democrats stretched that advantage by playing close to equal or even ahead of House Republicans among some key groups that are cool to the president. Where Obama loses whites to a generic GOP presidential candidate 49-38, the GOP advantage among whites shrinks to just two points, 43-41, in the House generic ballot.
In particular, House Democrats managed to beat the GOP among white men. Obama loses white, college-educated men by 16 points and white non-college men by 11. House Democrats run even with House Republicans among college-educated white men, 45-45, and actually beat the GOP 44-41 among non-college white men. That couldn't be more different than 2010, when House Republicans won 62 percent of the white male vote, according to exit polls.