The numbers are not too far off from October 2010 numbers, at which point 34 percent said their representative deserved reelection and 58 percent said it was time for a new person. And in October of 2006, Americans were more optimistic about incumbents than they are now, with 49 percent saying their representative deserved reelection and 42 percent saying they did not. A survey conducted in battleground districts by the Democratic polling firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner released on Monday showed trouble for incumbents, with 47 percent of likely voters saying they can't vote to reelect the their House incumbent and 37 percent saying they will vote to reelect their representative. The poll was taken in 48 districts won by President Obama in 2008 and a Republican congressional candidate in 2010 as well as 12 other competitive districts falling outside that definition. The Pew Research Center survey of 1,521 adults was conducted from Dec. 7-11 and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent. The reelection questions were asked of 1,211 registered voters and carry a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent. The United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll of 1,008 adults was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates by landline and cell phone from Dec. 8-11 and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. The Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research survey of 1000 likely 2012 voters in 60 Republican battleground districts was conducted from December 4-7, 2011 and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.
Red Flags for Congressional Republicans in New Polls
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