Insiders: After Economy/Jobs, Deficit/Taxes Are Most Important 2012 Election Issues
Even when it's not the economy, it's still the economy, stupid. It is widely accepted that jobs and the economy will dominate the elections of 2012, but what other issues will have a serious impact? According to this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll, the budget deficit and taxes head the list, in part because voters associate those issues with the economy.
|Other than the economy and jobs, what issue area will be the most important in the 2012 election cycle?|
|Deficit and taxes||68%||78%|
|National security/foreign policy||4%||3%|
"Independent voters see the economy and fiscal responsibility as totally interconnected," explained one Democratic strategist.
A Republican Insider agreed. "The 'red-ink issue' will loom larger in 2012, given our credit rating problems and the eurozone crisis, and the impact of both on voters' anxiety."
Other Insiders expected the sheer ubiquity of the deficit issue to grant it high importance in the election cycle.
"The congressional debate is so dominated by deficit and taxes that this debate will have a major influence in every campaign for federal office," claimed one Democrat. Added another, "The deficit and the unavoidable need to increase governmental revenues to reduce it will be front and center out of necessity."
"We as a country need realism on the deficit," said a Republican strategist, "which includes very significant budget cuts, but also a willingness to consider tax increases and the willingness not to procrastinate until the next election."
Few other issues struck a significant portion of Insiders as likely to have a major effect in 2012, but health care did raise a few eyebrows.
"Health care is a weakness for Obama and will certainly be used against him by the Republican presidential candidate," explained one Democratic Insider. Another pointed out, "The Supreme Court will be deciding the issue by June, right in the middle of the campaign."
According to one Republican Insider, "The president's health care law is the great substantive uniter of the Republican majority coalition."
A few Insiders also expected foreign policy challenges to have an impact before the cycle was through. "There's too much smoke - Iran, Pakistan, the Middle East, even the [European Union] - for there not to be fire in the next 11 months," said one Democrat.
Others felt the election cycle was likely to be influenced as much by sentiments as by policy areas. "Trust," one Democrat named as the critical issue. "Voters are cynical of institutions and politicians and will reward candidates they trust, but disagree with, over those they agree with on policy but do not trust."
A Republican Insider made a similar argument about fairness as a key concept. "Voters want to believe that what is done is fair, and this applies to each and every issue highlighted. 'Fair' equates to having the system make sense."
Still, the large majority of Insiders expected fiscal issues to be front-and-center, and some couldn't resist speculating on the political ramifications.
"Not sure which side wins this debate, but Democrats are in their best position in a long time (forever) to compete on it," said one Democratic Insider.
"Each party thinks it has a decisive political advantage on deficit and taxes," explained a Republican. "This guarantees it will play prominently in the election."
Democrats: Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.
Republicans: Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Mindy Fletcher, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O'Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.