DCCC Ups Ad Time In OR-01 to $1M

By Jessica Taylor  //  December 9, 2011 | 7:01 p.m.

Democrats are preparing to spend over $1 million on TV time in Oregon's 1st District, hammering Republican nominee Rob Cornilles in the weeks leading up to the January 31, 2012, special election to succeed former Rep. David Wu, D-Ore.

According to a GOP source, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has reserved $1,038,105 on cable and broadcast television through the end of January. That's an amount that's increased steadily this week since Wednesday, when the DCCC made an initial buy of $124,280, but more than tripled that with over $439,000 through Dec.22. Their new buy gives them a reservation through the end of the election. Democratic nominee Suzanne Bonamici also went on TV this week, as did Cornilles, both with positive spots.

Democrats say the early ads shouldn't be seen as a sign of panic . In fact, both committees this year have taken their whippings in special elections -- Democrats lost former Rep. Anthony Weiner's, D-N.Y., Queens seat in a September special election, while Republicans were defeated in a May special election to replace former Rep. Chris Lee, R-N.Y.

The National Republican Congressional Committee took a lesson away from their loss in New York -- define your opponent early -- and they applied that to another special election the same day in Nevada's 2nd District. Even though it was seen as a relatively safe GOP seat, they began buying TV ads early there, hammering Democratic nominee Kate Marshall. And now, Democrats seem to be employing that same thought process in the approaching Oregon election. Another difference for the seemingly early buy -- both the holiday season, and the fact that with Oregon's all mail-in election, ballots will be sent out in mid-January, the window to reach voters is narrower than the calendar makes it seem.

So far, the two approaches in both elections are similar. While the DCCC's buy in Oregon is significant, TV time in Portland, especially around the holidays, is more expensive than the Reno market the NRCC had to buy in. So far, the DCCC has reserved 4,150 gross rating points in Oregon, while the NRCC bought 4,170 gross rating points in the Nevada contest.

The NRCC's gamble paid off in the Reno district that only voted for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in 2008 by 89 votes -- Republican Mark Amodei won by a 22 point margin. While the Portland seat is far safer for Democrats -- President Obama took this district with 61 percent of the vote -- if you can take one thing away from this volatile climate, it's that no one is safe. On the heels of their embarrassment in Weiner's seat, and especially as the presidential race is amping up next year and Democrats are trying to make a case to donors that they can win back the House, a loss in Oregon would a fatal blow. David Wasserman, my colleage at the Cook Political Report, makes a good argument that the DCCC's decision, at least their initial buy, shouldn't be overanalyzed, especially given the voter registration gap that was evident even in the November primary. There's still a chance, as in any election, especially special ones, that this could end up being a real race, but even Republicans privately don't think it's there yet and are content in claiming a victory that Democrats are spending any money here at all. If you see the NRCC going on the air, then you'll know that they think there's a real shot of an upset. Bonamici has already put $200,000 of her own money into her campaign, and Cornilles, while he does have the financial ability to put his own funds in as well, hasn't yet, and he didn't in 2010 when he challenged Wu either. If you see Bonamici putting in more or Cornilles also self-funding, the dynamics could be shifting. For now, this one should still be safe for Democrats, albeit probably closer than they like, but it's one we're talking about now anstibecome a lot more interesting this week.

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