The NRCC's gamble paid off in the Reno district that only voted for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in 2008 by 89 votes -- Republican Mark Amodei won by a 22 point margin. While the Portland seat is far safer for Democrats -- President Obama took this district with 61 percent of the vote -- if you can take one thing away from this volatile climate, it's that no one is safe. On the heels of their embarrassment in Weiner's seat, and especially as the presidential race is amping up next year and Democrats are trying to make a case to donors that they can win back the House, a loss in Oregon would a fatal blow. David Wasserman, my colleage at the Cook Political Report, makes a good argument that the DCCC's decision, at least their initial buy, shouldn't be overanalyzed, especially given the voter registration gap that was evident even in the November primary. There's still a chance, as in any election, especially special ones, that this could end up being a real race, but even Republicans privately don't think it's there yet and are content in claiming a victory that Democrats are spending any money here at all. If you see the NRCC going on the air, then you'll know that they think there's a real shot of an upset. Bonamici has already put $200,000 of her own money into her campaign, and Cornilles, while he does have the financial ability to put his own funds in as well, hasn't yet, and he didn't in 2010 when he challenged Wu either. If you see Bonamici putting in more or Cornilles also self-funding, the dynamics could be shifting. For now, this one should still be safe for Democrats, albeit probably closer than they like, but it's one we're talking about now anstibecome a lot more interesting this week.
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