What We Learned: Hatch of the Day

By Hotline Staff  //  October 29, 2011 | 3:23 p.m.
Updated: November 2, 2011 | 7:40 a.m.

What we at the Hotline learned this week:

-- Who wants to run against Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah? Right now, the answer is no one, so far. Republican Rep. Jason Chaffetz said no thanks to a primary challenge, and now, Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson is passing on a bid as well, even as he faces a tough situation following redistricting. One of the cycle's top Tea Party targets is running unopposed with a fat war chest right now.

-- Rep. Connie Mack, R-Fla., has finally brought some sizzle to the Senate race against Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, thanks to his brand-name biography and potential to rally establishment money and support on his side. But don't assume he'll be a clear frontrunner. Mack has some glaring vulnerabilities that have given other high-profile Republican candidates major problems in this political environment. He's a consummate Washington insider -- his dad served two terms in the Senate -- and is married to Congresswoman Mary Bono Mack of California. And his centrist positioning on immigration will play well in a general, but could cause problems in a primary.

-- Turns out Elizabeth Warren has been lunching with an industry lobbyist who once had ties to a company she has criticized and more than a dozen of President Obama's bundlers are involved in lobbying. The reality in D.C: Lobbyists play a major role in the government, and in funding the campaigns those politicians run it, making it difficult to constantly rail against them.

-- Texas Gov. Rick Perry grabbed headlines in New Hampshire Friday, filing his paperwork for the primary ballot before headlining a major conservative event in Manchester. But he wasn't alone; Mitt Romney courted Granite State voters at a town hall meeting mere miles from Perry's event, and despite denials from the Romney camp, the message was unmistakable: This is my state, and you'll have to pry a victory here from my cold, dead hands.

Over the top? Hardly. The electoral math is complicated for Romney -- there are numerous scenarios detailing which states he could win or lose en route to the nomination -- but this much is simple: he must win New Hampshire to be the Republican nominee. And despite mounting evidence that Romney is making a surreptitious push to steal an Iowa victory, he knows where his bread is buttered.

-- If you're Perry, you know it's been a rough week when you reboot your campaign on Monday and by Friday everyone is talking about why you likely won't be participating in all of the upcoming debates.

-- And if Perry is really going to start skipping debates, he'll need to get in at least one strong performance first. What's more, if he is really serious about Iowa, ducking even one of three debates there in December won't look good. -- If Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., is really uninterested in running as the vice presidential nominee in 2012, then Republicans may look to Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell, who is positioning himself to be the next most logical choice. He lauded Romney this week in Fairfax for his understanding of the free market and his executive experience as governor. Yet, McDonnell did not endorse him, aware such a move would be a snub to his predecessor at the Republican Governors Association, Perry. McDonnell has repeatedly said he is partial toward a former or current governor receiving the GOP nod and has not ruled out being selected for VP himself. Also consider this: If Romney won the nomination, selected McDonnell for his running mate and won the general election, that would ascend Virginia's Republican lieutenant governor Bill Bolling, the chairman of Romney's Virginia campaign, into the governor's mansion in Richmond. -- Chances are, if you were wandering around Capitol Hill this week with a suitcase and looking vaguely lost, there is a good chance your name will be on a ballot somewhere next year. Democrats brought over 100 of their House recruits to D.C. this week for strategy sessions, meet and greets and training with party leaders. The parade was impressive and Democrats need to flood the zone in dozens of districts if they're going to have a shot at winning back the House. But their biggest liability is still Obama at the top of the ticket in the Midwest and the South. If Obama's approval rating stay where they are now this time next year, Democrats may make gains, but not enough to take back control.

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Reid Wilson, Editor-in-Chief
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