The Merit of Being Mild

By Steven Shepard  //  October 6, 2011 | 4:02 p.m.
Updated: October 11, 2011 | 6:55 a.m.

Maybe milquetoast is working for Mitt Romney.

According to a new Pew Research Center survey out Thursday, the former Massachusetts governor is in a dead heat with President Obama in a 2012 general election matchup, with each man taking 48 percent of the vote. But when respondents were asked whether their vote was more about their favored candidate or the other candidate, the poll showed that Romney's uncontroversial style is offending few voters and positioning him to defeat a weakened incumbent president.

In the matchup with Romney, a third of voters -- and more than two thirds of Obama supporters -- say their vote is more a vote for Obama than against Romney. Among Romney supporters, an equal number say their vote is more of a vote against Obama than for Romney.

But only 11 percent of voters -- less than a quarter of Obama supporters -- say their vote is more of a vote against Romney. In a matchup against Texas Gov. Rick Perry -- in which Obama leads, 50 percent to 46 percent -- 15 percent of voters say their vote is more of an anti-Perry vote.

According to past Pew polls, it is not unusual for the campaign to be mainly about the incumbent. That is likely to help Romney or the eventual GOP nominee: Just 43 percent of registered voters approve of the job Obama is doing as president, while a 51-percent majority disapproves.

Romney leads in the Republican primary over Perry, 22 percent to 17 percent, with businessman Herman Cain at 13 percent and Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, at 12 percent. But the poll was conducted over a 12-day period, and the movement over time shows Perry slipping and Cain rising as time elapsed.

Romney has a significant lead among women, though the race is a virtual four-way tie among men. Romney has large leads in the northeast and western states, but in the vote-rich south, he narrowly trails Cain and Perry -- though he is within the margin of error. Overall, Romney leads Obama among men in the general election by 12 points; Obama leads by 10 among women. Compared to 2008 exit polls, men have swung towards the Republican by 13 points, while women have moved by just three points. Romney is particularly outpacing Obama among white men. He leads this group by a 29-point margin, 63 percent to 34 percent. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., won among white men in 2008 by 16 points, according to exit polls. Romney also holds a 13-point advantage among independents, suggesting that his position is stronger than the poll indicates. Obama won independents by eight points in 2008, according to exit polls. The Pew Research Center poll was conducted Sept. 22-Oct. 4, surveying 1,901 registered voters. The margin of error for the full sample is +/- 2.2 percent. For the sample of Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters, there were 876 respondents, for a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percent.

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