Polls: Cain, Romney Ahead in Early Southern States
By Steven Shepard // October 19, 2011 | 6:57 a.m.
Updated: October 21, 2011 | 8:50 a.m.
Herman Cain narrowly leads the first-in-the-South Republican presidential primary in South Carolina, and he and Mitt Romney run neck-and-neck in the crucial state of Florida, which will also hold its primary in January, according to new NBC News/Marist polls released early Wednesday.
In the Palmetto State, which holds its primary on January 21, Cain leads Romney among likely primary voters, 31 percent to 28 percent. Texas Gov. Rick Perry announced his candidacy in South Carolina, but he earns only ten percent of the vote. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is fourth with seven percent, followed by Reps. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., and Ron Paul, R-Texas, who are at five percent. Ten percent of likely voters are undecided.
Fifty-three percent of likely GOP voters in South Carolina either do not believe Mormons are Christians, or say they are unsure, a potential liability for Romney in the state.
Florida holds its primary ten days after South Carolina, and the NBC News/Marist poll shows that Cain and Romney are -- at this moment -- leading the rest of the field by a significant margin. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, is at 33 percent, leading the former Godfather's Pizza CEO by just a point. Perry is back at nine percent, followed by Paul and Gingrich at six percent. Eight percent of Sunshine State primary voters are undecided.
Among wider samples of all registered voters, President Obama posts low approval ratings in each state -- 40 percent in South Carolina and 41 percent in Florida. South Carolina remains firmly in the GOP column; Cain, Perry and Romney all lead Obama in the state.
In Florida, which will award 29 electoral votes to its winner, Obama has just a two-point lead on Romney, 45 percent to 43 percent, among registered voters. He posts larger leads on Cain (six percent) and Perry (eight percent).
The South Carolina poll was conducted by the Poughkeepsie, N.Y.-based Marist College Institute for Public Opinion from Oct. 11-13, surveying 2,131 registered voters. Results for the full sample have a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percent. There were 639 likely Republican primary voters, for a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percent.
The Florida survey was conducted Oct. 10-12, surveying 2,225 registered voters, for a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percent. There were 524 likely Republican primary voters; the margin of error for that subsample is +/- 4.3 percent.
CLARIFICATION: This story has been updated. We originally reported the results as listed on MSNBC.com. Those results, however, did not include respondents who said they were leaning toward one of the candidates; National Journal Hotline policy is to report poll results "with leaners" when those data are available.
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