McKenna Has Slight Edge in Closely-Watched Wash. Race

By Steven Shepard  //  October 31, 2011 | 3:13 p.m.
Updated: November 2, 2011 | 1:40 p.m.

Republican Rob McKenna has a slight lead over Rep. Jay Inslee, D-Wash., in the 2012 gubernatorial race in Washington State, expected to be one of the most competitive state races of the cycle, according to a new University of Washington poll released Monday.

McKenna, the two-term state attorney general, leads Inslee, 44 percent to 38 percent. That is just barely inside the poll's margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent. Eighteen percent of voters were undecided.

McKenna, who was reelected in 2008 with nearly 60 percent of the vote, leads Inslee among independents, 44 percent to 28 percent.

McKenna is better-known -- and more popular -- than Inslee, who represents a district that straddles the Puget Sound around and north of Seattle. McKenna is viewed favorably by 47 percent of Evergreen State voters, while just 20 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.

Meanwhile, half of voters don't know enough about Inslee to have an opinion. A third of voters have a favorable opinion of Inslee, while 17 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

Having President Obama on the ticket is unlikely to seriously hamper Inslee's candidacy. Fifty-two percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, and he leads Texas Gov. Rick Perry by 13 points and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by 9 points in split samples. The poll surveyed 938 registered voters, for a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent. The margin of error is higher for subgroups and the split samples used for the presidential election matchups. The poll was conducted over a relatively wide range of dates, Oct. 10-30, though the campaign has yet to begin in earnest.

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