Brown Still Leads in Mass. Senate, But Warren Closing In

By Steven Shepard  //  October 7, 2011 | 1:50 p.m.
Updated: October 7, 2011 | 5:30 p.m.

Scott Brown (Liz Lynch)

Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., continues to enjoy remarkably high personal and job-related poll numbers, but Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren remains stubbornly close in a 2012 election matchup, according to a new survey of Bay State voters released Friday.

Brown's lead over Warren, according to the Western New England University poll, is just five points: 47 percent to 42 percent. Warren has benefited from the announcement of her candidacy last month; in March, Brown sported a 17-point lead over Warren.

Independents -- the largest voting bloc in Massachusetts -- propel Brown to his lead, breaking for him, 57 percent to 32 percent.

Brown leads City Year co-founder Alan Khazei by a wider margin: 52 percent to 35 percent.

Results of the poll are similar to a UMass-Lowell/Boston Herald poll released earlier this week that showed Brown with a three-point lead over Warren.

Brown's job rating remains overwhelmingly positive: 54 percent of voters approve, while 30 percent disapprove. That is down slightly from March, when 57 percent approved, and 24 percent disapproved.

Brown's personal ratings are also very positive: 52 percent have a favorable opinion of the Wrentham Republican, while 27 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

Warren's entrance into the race has increased her name ID considerably. In March, 59 percent of voters had not heard of her, but now, just 30 percent have not heard of her. A third of voters have a favorable opinion of the former adviser to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, while only 16 percent have an unfavorable opinion. That around half of voters have no opinion of Warren gives the Brown camp a limited opportunity to try to define her. With each day the campaign receives widespread attention (see this week's controversy over comments that revisited Brown's nude Cosmopolitan spread, but the poll was conducted before then), Brown's campaign has a tougher time shaping public opinion about their likely opponent. One line of attack -- Warren's employment as a professor at Harvard Law School -- is not likely to help the Brown camp. Twenty-one percent of voters say Warren's job makes them more likely to vote for her for the Senate, while just 13 percent say it makes them less likely to vote for her. The vast majority of voters say it makes no difference. The Western New England College poll was conducted Sept. 29-Oct. 5, surveying 475 registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percent.

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