-- Democratic talking points would have you believe Republican over-performance in early voting in the NV-02 special election is nothing out of the ordinary. In reality, Republican voters are giving former state Sen. Mark Amodei a big, perhaps insurmountable lead, and Democrats paying close attention to the race are resigned to their apparent fate. The DCCC has sent field operatives, but their absence from the airwaves tells the more accurate story. -- And have Republicans been focusing their efforts on the wrong special election fight? The Nevada race appears to be swinging heavily towards Amodei. The NRCC and American Crossroads combined have put more than $850,000 in the race to boost Amodei, but could those funds have been used better in the NY-09 special election, where Obama's ratings are underwater? Even if Republicans come close in this Brooklyn-Queens district, where Democrats have a 133,000 voter registration edge, it could signal a problem in 2012 for Democrats down-ballot even in Democrat-leaning districts. -- Whoever wins, one of the biggest losers in the race is Obama, who has been vilified by Turner and pushed to the side by Weprin. As Obama's approval rating in the district plummets, the Turner campaign seems increasingly intent on tying Weprin to the president. -- It seems increasingly likely that both parties will split the 2011 gubernatorial races 2-2. Still, the DGA might be able to claim something of a victory if Mississippi Democrat Johnny DuPree ends up outperforming Kentucky Republican David Williams. It's not impossible. No Democrat in Mississippi has ever drawn less than 42 percent in a gubernatorial race, and if current polling is to be believed, Williams is by no means assured of hitting that mark himself. -- Be careful what you wish for. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, questioned why he didn't receive more media coverage, before saying he thought he had plenty of media coverage and now some of his more controversial positions are under a national spotlight. Anderson Cooper questioned Paul about his opposition to FEMA on Tuesday night and Connecticut Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy called Paul an "idiot" for taking such a stance on Wednesday morning while speaking to Christine Romans.
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