Insiders: Florida the New Presidential Kingmaker
Move over, Iowa. Make room, New Hampshire. Florida could be the new presidential kingmaker, according to the results of this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll. Strategists and advisers from both parties said the Sunshine State will be more important than Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina in determining the 2012 Republican nominee for president.
|Which of the following four states will be the most important in determining the Republican nominee for president? Rank the four, with 1 being the most important and 4 being the least important.|
|Rank||INSIDERS INDEX SCORE*|
|2. New Hampshire||66|
|3. South Carolina||59|
|*Methodology: In tallying the rankings, a first-place vote was worth 4 points, a second-place vote was worth 3 points, and so on. The score reflects the percentage of points that each state received out of the maximum possible. For example, Florida scored an Index rating of 80 among Republicans, meaning it received 80 percent of the possible 448 points, the number it would have if all 112 Republican participants in the poll this week had ranked the state first.|
|Rank||INSIDERS INDEX SCORE*|
|3. New Hampshire||63|
|4. South Carolina||56|
|*Methodology: In tallying the rankings, a first-place vote was worth 4 points, a second-place vote was worth 3 points, and so on. The score reflects the percentage of points that each state received out of the maximum possible. For example, Florida scored an Index rating of 66 among Democrats, meaning it received 66 percent of the possible 400 points, the number it would have if all 100 Democratic participants in the poll this week had ranked the state first.|
With Republicans in Florida hinting that they intend to move their primary date to January 31, a step that could set off a wave of primary calendar scrambling, Insiders expect the state to assume a new position of prominence in the nominating process.
"If Florida does go early," said a Republican Insider, "it will eclipse South Carolina, while Iowa becomes increasingly irrelevant."
"The Florida winner will be nominated," said another. "Romney gets to Florida through New Hampshire, Perry through either South Carolina or Iowa."
A Democratic Insider agreed, saying, "Iowa usually eliminates someone; New Hampshire and South Carolina winnow; but Florida is the new 'decider.'"
The calendar aside, many Insiders pointed to Florida's size and diverse electorate as factors making it a newly critical proving ground for the presidential candidates.
"Any campaign can drum up enough resources to play somewhat in smaller states, but it takes a real budget to play in Florida and nationally," said one Republican Insider. "This is where Romney, Perry, and Huntsman will or will not demonstrate their national ability - and all the others will be forced to watch from the sidelines because they don't have the money to play."
"Florida will be the decisive test of endurance," said another. "Iowa and New Hampshire still matter, but early debates and other preseason events are stealing their limelight."
Other Insiders predicted an extended campaign, with the decisive primary likely to be later in the calendar than any of the first four states.
"By the time we get to Florida," said a Republican Insider, "it'll be a two-way race that will go on for a while. Florida will not be decisive."
Echoed a Democrat: "The three early states will define the top two candidates, and then there will be a one-on-one that will be a protracted battle."
Whether or not Florida produces the GOP nominee, many Insiders see the state's rising prominence in tandem with a decline in the importance of other early states, especially Iowa.
"This could be the cycle where Iowa loses its right to early determination," said one Republican Insider. "The straw poll is useless, and the caucuses are an oversampling of the conservative wing of the party."
"Should Iowa even be included in a list of influential nominating states anymore?" asked another. "Will any serious candidate ever make the mistake of competing in that straw poll again?"
But Iowa and New Hampshire have their defenders as well.
"Iowa will continue to be the state that 'weeds out' candidates that do not appeal to voters," said a Democratic Insider.
"For those who doubt the importance of Iowa," added a Republican, "imagine if Romney won it as he nearly did four years ago."
As for the Granite State, a Republican Insider had this colorful analogy:
"New Hampshire is first base, and just like putting a move on your girlfriend, if you can't get to first base, you will never score the nomination."
The National Journal Political Insiders Poll is a regular survey of political operatives, strategists, campaign consultants and lobbyists in both parties. Below are the names of the Political Insiders who are surveyed:
Democrats: Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Deb Callahan, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.
Republicans: Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Mindy Fletcher, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, George S. LeMieux, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O'Neill, Connie Partoyan, Dana Perino, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.