Polls Show Obama at Risk in Florida

By Steven Shepard  //  August 4, 2011 | 6:34 a.m.
Updated: August 5, 2011 | 11:55 a.m.

President Obama, who carried vote-rich Florida by three points in 2008, is deeply vulnerable in the crucial state in 2012, according to new polling data released early Thursday by Quinnipiac University.

Quinnipiac conducted two polls -- one prior to the Obama administration's deal with Congress to raise the federal debt ceiling and slash government spending and the other immediately after. In the poll conducted during the heat of the negotiations over the debt ceiling, Obama led former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by five points, 46 to 41 percent. In the poll conducted Monday and Tuesday -- after the deal was struck but as Congress was voting on it -- the two candidates were tied at 44 percent. The difference between the two surveys is within the margin of error.

Romney comes closer than any other 2012 GOP hopeful. Obama leads Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., (50-36 percent before, 50-38 percent after); Texas Gov. Rick Perry (49-36 percent before, 44-39 percent after); and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (54-33 percent before, 53-34 percent after).

Romney leads the Republican primary, garnering 23 percent of the vote. Perry is second at 13 percent, with Palin and Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, each earning 9 percent. Notably, Jon Huntsman, the former U.S. Ambassador to China and Utah governor whose campaign is headquartered in Orlando, brings up the rear at one percent.

Although Obama leads the other Republican candidates (and possible candidates), the poll underscores his vulnerability in the Sunshine State. In late May, Obama had a 51-percent approval rating in the state, buoyed by the killing of Osama bin Laden. In the poll conducted after the debt deal was struck, 51 percent of Florida voters disapproved of the job Obama was doing as president. Just 44 percent approved of Obama in each of the new surveys.

Florida voters are split on whether Obama deserves to be re-elected. Before the debt deal, 47 percent said they felt he deserved re-election, but in the poll following the deal, just 42 percent agreed, while 50 percent said he didn't deserve re-election.

Florida takes on even more importance in the upcoming election. The number of electoral votes the state will award will increase from 27 to 29 as a result of reapportionment following the decennial Census. That ties New York as the third-largest state in the Electoral College -- and easily the largest swing state up for grabs.

The re-election effort of Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., has also taken a hit over the past two-and-a-half months. In late May, 48 percent of voters said he deserved re-election, but that number stands at 45 percent and 44 percent in the pre- and post-debt deal surveys, respectively. The percentage of voters who said he doesn't deserve to be re-elected rose from 30 percent in late May to 38 percent following the debt agreement. The poll did not test Nelson against any of the possible Republican candidates, but it did find that, among Republicans, there is no clear front-runner. Retired Army Col. Mike McCalister leads the pack with 15 percent of the vote. Former Sen. George LeMieux, R-Fla., is second at 12 percent, former Ruth's Chris Steak House CEO Craig Miller is third at 8 percent, and former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner is at 6 percent. The pre-debt agreement poll was conducted July 27-31, surveying 674 registered voters, for a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percent. Interviews for the second survey began Monday, when the House approved the bill and concluded Tuesday, after the Senate moved the legislation to the White House and Obama signed it into law. That poll surveyed 743 voters, for a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percent. The Republican primary matchups for president and Senate were conducted over the duration of both polls (July 27-August 2). Those results are among 510 Republicans, for a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent.

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