Revised N.C. Map Even Worse For Democrats

By Jessica Taylor and David Wasserman  //  July 19, 2011 | 5:20 p.m.
Updated: July 19, 2011 | 8:59 p.m.

WASHINGTON - NOVEMBER 13: Former Washington Redskins quarterback and Congressman elect Heath Shuler (D-NC) talks to a reporter before attending his orientation class on Capitol Hill November 13, 2006 in Washington DC. The 110th Congress will be sworn in January 2007 when Congress reconvenes.  (Mark Wilson/Getty Images)

While the first draft of North Carolina's redistricting maps were bad news for at least four House Democrats, a revised plan is even more dismal for them, as a proposal from state Republicans now lumps four incumbents into two districts.

The changes were spurred to rework the majority-black 1st District represented by Democratic Rep. G.K. Butterfield, but the map has further reaching implications for the already-endangered Democratic quartet of Reps. Larry Kissell, Mike McIntyre, Heath Shuler, and Brad Miller. In particular, it drives up GOP performance in the districts of the three Democrats with proven conservative appeal: Kissell, McIntyre, and Shuler.

Under the new map, Kissell and McIntyre are drawn into the 8th District, which Kissell currently represents. The proposed 8th District has a 12 point GOP advantage and would have voted 57 percent for John McCain in 2008. McIntyre had been spared the most in the last round, but neither running against Kissell nor heading to a vastly different 7th District gives him good options.

The new 7th District has an 11 point GOP swing and also voted 57 percent for McCain. Instead of giving it more coastal Republicans, the second draft map extends the 7th District north into suburban Johnston County outside Raleigh, in a move some Democrats say is designed to entice Johnston-based GOP state Sen. David Rouzer into a run. McIntyre lives just inside the new 8th, but could feasibly move back into his old territory.

The other major problem the map presents occurs from shifting the current 6th and 13th Districts, which moves current 13th District Democratic Rep. Brad Miller, into the same 4th District seat as Democratic Rep. David Price in the Research Triangle area. The now-open 13th District, once running across most of the Virginia border, now shifts more centrally within the state, while GOP Rep. Howard Coble's 6th District takes over much of that current territory and what was proposed to give the 13th District during the first visualization.

Miller's spokeswoman LouAnn Canipe said Miller lives just narrowly outside his old district, and that there was no possibility of him taking on Price in a primary. "It looks pretty intentionally drawn to exclude him," said Canipe. "His intention is to run again. I just don't think he can make a decision until the maps are final. As they're currently drawn, he does not think they will meet a legal challenge and are still in violation of the Voting Rights Act." The 1st District that prompted the re-working now includes more of Durham County but removes Wake County while re-establishing eastern counties he previously had, which could have caused questions from the Department of Justice. The 2nd District, now represented by GOP Rep. Renee Ellmers, gets slightly better for the freshman Republican though as it shifts more westward, giving much of its territory to the 7th District while taking in all of Moore and parts of Randolph County. Most of the western part of the state remains relatively unchanged from the first map, although Republican Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., gets even more of the liberal Buncombe County from Democratic Rep. Heath Shuler, while Shuler tacks on Polk County to become even more Republican. As was the case in the first map, Shuler's 11th District is still the most Republican of any district, with a 13 point GOP advantage in a district that voted nearly 59 percent for McCain. One thing the maps keeps intact - a 10-3 split in favor of Republicans based on 2008 voting patterns. No GOP district voted less than 55 percent for McCain, while the 1st, 4th and 12th Districts remain overwhelmingly Democratic. The Republican state legislature is scheduled to vote on the maps next week, but Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue does not have veto authority over them.

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