Weiner has a surprisingly mixed image in his district. Forty-four percent of voters rate his job performance as "excellent" or "good," with only 38 percent saying that Weiner is a "fair" or "poor" member of Congress. He scores slightly lower on personal favorability, with 38 percent of voters having a favorable opinion of Weiner, and 42 percent have an unfavorable opinion.
The poll may further galvanize Weiner against calls for his resignation. CNN reported
Thursday that Weiner, in a conversation with an anonymous fellow New York Democrat, was citing polling data saying he should not resign.
Weiner was likely referencing another NY1-Marist poll
conducted Monday that showed a majority of voters citywide did not think Weiner should resign. But that poll was conducted just hours after Weiner's tearful press conference, and many respondents may not have been aware of the latest developments.
Since this new poll in his congressional district was conducted Wednesday, it is unlikely that voters in his district are unfamiliar with Weiner's foibles. But one note of caution: The poll was conducted the same evening that various news sources reported that Weiner's wife, State Department aide Huma Abedin
, was pregnant.
, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, told Hotline On Call
that phone calls began around 6 p.m., which would have been roughly an hour after the news of Abedin's reported pregnancy began to break.
Miringoff doubts that the pregnancy news would have a big effect on public opinion within his district, however.
"I'm not sure it's very event-centered right now," he said.
Looking ahead to 2012, 30 percent of voters say they definitely plan to vote for Weiner in the next election, while 31 percent say they definitely plan to vote against him; 38 percent of voters are undecided. Voters may not have that choice even if Weiner stays in office, however: The Empire State must eliminate two congressional districts as a result of reapportionment, and Weiner's district has been named as a prime target to be swallowed up, particularly after recent events.
The NY1-Marist poll surveyed 411 registered voters, for a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percent.