-- With a second poll this week confirming that we really have a three-way race in New York's 26th District, Republicans have the most to lose if things don't go Jane Corwin's way in three weeks - and their nervousness is starting to show. Both Corwin and the state GOP have gone after independent Jack Davis, hoping that if they can remind people of his Democratic past, he'll stop pulling votes away from them. But they have two fronts to watch now, with both Democrat Kathy Hochul and Davis hammering Corwin on Medicare.
It's clear now that the Medicare issue will be the defining issue in the race, and so far Corwin has tried to turn the message back to jobs and the deficit. This is an early test for how the Democratic message will play, but the DCCC still isn't in; though with Corwin forced to go on the attack, it could be better if they wait it out and force her hand. On the flip side, the NRCC has already begun phone-banking for Corwin, but especially if they're forced to send resources and go up on air for her, it's an even surer sign that they're worried about how a loss could play into their 2012 plans.
-- The Nevada state GOP quickly went to court this week over Secretary of State Ross Miller's (D) decision to allow a free for all, or "ballot royale," special House election. Their chief worries if there's a multi-candidate field - 1) there's a definite opening for Democrats, who landed a strong candidate in state Treasurer Kate Marshall and 2) Sharron Angle could again play spoiler and either win the race or pull just enough votes away from other GOP candidates that Democrats do get a slim plurality and capture the seat. This will be a crowded race either way, but if Miller's decision is overturned and parties can pick their nominees, Angle likely won't get the central committee's blessing.