A Big Obama Bounce In Florida
Democrats' fortunes have improved significantly in the last month in the key battleground state of Florida, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll that shows that more voters now believe President Obama and Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., deserve to be re-elected.
Obama's approval rating has risen to 51 percent, up from 44 percent in early April. His approval rating among independents is up eight points. Just 43 percent of Sunshine State voters disapprove of Obama, down nine points from early April.
Half of voters say that Obama deserves to be re-elected, while 44 percent believe he does not. In early April, a 51 percent majority believed Obama did not deserve to be re-elected.
Obama leads a generic Republican, 44 percent to 37 percent; in April, he trailed, 41 percent to 38 percent.
"Whether these numbers represent a 'bin Laden bounce,' President Barack Obama's popularity is up in Florida, which will be a crucial state for him in the 2012 campaign," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll.
In the Senate race, Nelson has leads ranging between 20 and 25 points against three Republican challengers, though Nelson fails to cross the 50-percent threshold against any of the three.
Nelson leads former Sen. George LeMieux, 47 percent to 27 percent. Against state Senate President Mike Haridopolos, Nelson leads, 47 percent to 26 percent. Nelson posts his biggest lead over former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner, 48 percent to 23 percent. Independents favor Nelson by nearly a two-to-one margin in the three matchups, though around 30 percent of independent voters are undecided in each matchup.
A plurality of voters -- 48 percent -- believes Nelson deserves to be re-elected, while just 30 percent feel he doesn't deserve to be re-elected. In early April, 43 percent believes he deserved to be re-elected, compared to 35 percent who felt he didn't deserve re-election.
In the Republican primary, most voters are undecided when asked which candidate they want to see face Nelson next November. LeMieux leads with only 14 percent of the primary vote, one point ahead of Haridopolos. Hasner earns just four percent, with 64 percent of Republicans undecided.
The poll was conducted May 17-23 among 1,196 registered voters, for a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent. The GOP primary matchup was conducted among 463 registered Republican voters, for a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percent.