Mitt Romney's Southern Problem

By Steven Shepard  //  March 2, 2011 | 12:01 a.m.
Updated: March 3, 2011 | 7:55 a.m.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney speaks at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is lagging behind other prospective Republican presidential candidates in Southern states, according to new polling, presenting an obstacle for the nominal front-runner for the party's nomination.

A new Winthrop University survey, measuring public opinion in 11 Southern states, shows former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee as the preferred choice, winning 22 percent of the vote among probable primary voters. Romney is way back in fifth place with just seven percent, leading only lesser-known candidates like former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas and Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a Georgian, is in second with 13 percent. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is third, at nine percent, while New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who has said he won't run for president in 2012, is fourth with eight percent.

The Winthrop poll surveyed only 256 probable Republican primary voters in the South and carries a relatively high margin of error of +/- 6.1%.

The Winthrop poll was conducted the week after a Gallup poll showed Romney in a virtual tie with Huckabee and Palin nationally, though Huckabee had a double-digit lead in the South. Huckabee drew 18 percent of the national vote in the Gallup poll, but his vote share surged to 25 percent of Republicans in Southern states. Romney, meanwhile, saw his support slip from 16 percent nationally to 13 percent in the South, according to the Gallup poll.

Huckabee's lead in the South isn't surprising, since he hails from the region and finished a close second in 2008 to the eventual GOP nominee, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, in the first-in-the-South primary in South Carolina.

But Romney ran fairly well in 2008 in many of the states included in the surveys. He drew 15 percent of the vote in South Carolina, finishing fourth behind McCain, Huckabee and former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee. Romney finished a close second to McCain in Florida with 31 percent of the vote. Romney also earned 30 percent of the vote in the South's biggest Super Tuesday prize three years ago, Georgia -- narrowly edged by Huckabee (34 percent) and McCain (31 percent).

Romney had dropped out of the race prior to the Texas primary, a big prize that yielded 137 delegates tied to the election. Romney's relative weakness in the region could be a sign that his standing in the South has slipped in the last three years. The vast majority of Republicans in the Winthrop poll disapproves of how Obama is handling health care policy -- an indication that the Bay State's health care overhaul under then-Gov. Romney may be an albatross around the candidate. Moreover, Romney could be hurt among the more evangelical Southern base by the same questions about his faith that raised concerns in the 2008 campaign. The director of the Rock Hill, S.C.-based Winthrop poll, Dr. Scott Huffmon, recalled receiving a Christmas card in 2007 alleging to be from Romney that quoted the Book of Mormon, in support of polygamy. With Romney already contemplating conceding Iowa, a poor showing in South Carolina could thwart whatever momentum a possible victory in the New Hampshire primary would create. And potential candidates like Huckabee and Gingrich could use the South as a firewall against Romney in the overall battle for the nomination. The Winthrop University poll was conducted Feb. 21-Feb. 27 in these states: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia. Sample sizes by state were too small for results at the state level to be statistically significant. The Gallup poll was conducted Feb. 18-20, surveying 1,326 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents nationwide, for a margin of error of +/- 2.7%; the margin of error is higher for subgroups.

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