Hitting McCaskill Where It Hurts

By Sean Sullivan and Josh Kraushaar  //  March 22, 2011 | 10:51 a.m.
Updated: March 24, 2011 | 2:55 p.m.

Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee Full committee hearing on "Follow the Money: State and Local Oversight of Stimulus Funding." Claire McCaskill (Liz Lynch)

What began earlier this month as a small story about tax dollars being spent to pay for Sen. Claire McCaskill's (D-Mo.) charter flights has dragged on, evolving into a narrative that could do lasting damage to both McCaskill and Senate Democrats in 2012.

On Monday, McCaskill revealed she owed over $287,000 in back property taxes on the aircraft that has caused her much consternation in recent weeks. Her admission was just the latest development in a story the Show Me State's senior senator can't seem to shake. While it's very early in the cycle, here is a look at why both McCaskill and Democrats should be worried:

1) It cuts against the grain of her good-government image: McCaskill has cultivated a reputation as a figure devoted to standing against corruption. After all, she was the state auditor before she became senator; and has developed a populist brand attacking the excesses of the wealthy. When you embrace the image of being a no-nonsense reformer, this kind of story has even more sticking power.

2) Her ineffectual apology: While it certainly would have been far worse for McCaskill if the news of her back taxes had leaked out, her public acknowledgment will still likely fall short of the mark in the minds of many voters. The personal audit she conducted only came after news that taxpayer dollars had been spent on her travel. Her announcement, apology and willingness to pay the money she owed without hesitation may win her some good will with supporters, but "I have convinced my husband to sell the damn plane" doesn't sound like an overwhelmingly convincing line for the undecided voters McCaskill will so desperately need in 2012.

The economic climate won't help. With unemployment dominating the headlines and the economy still atop the minds of many voters, the image of McCaskill as a jet-setting, tax-avoider will easily stick in peoples' minds, fair or unfair. The story got front-page treatment in the state's two biggest papers, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and the Kansas City Star.

3) The material it gives to Republicans: It is very early in the cycle. Still, McCaskill has provided Republican ad makers with a trove of quotes and images that can be juxtaposed with previous statements she has made about responsible government. Also, her GOP opponents, who are likely to face a bang-up primary battle of their own, have been using the news to raise money and build their campaign coffers. "It makes fair game all the unsavory things about all the offshore tax shelters she started in order to avoid paying the same amount in taxes the rest of us do," said longtime Missouri GOP strategist Gregg Keller, who was recently named executive director of the American Conservative Union. Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh concurred: "If ever there was a textbook oppo hit job it is the one on Claire McCaskill right now." 4) The overall Senate map: The Senate map is daunting for Democrats in 2012. Democrats (and independents who caucus with the party) currently hold a 53-47 advantage in the Senate. Democrats have 23 seats up in 2012 compared to just 10 for the GOP. Missouri could be the fourth Democratic-held seat Republicans need to pick up, with Nebraska, North Dakota, and (to a lesser extent) Montana already looking like favorable opportunities. A presidential election in 2012 also complicates matter for Democrats. Despite his landslide win, Obama lost Missouri and the state has been trending towards Republicans in recent elections. McCaskill needs to run a flawless campaign to counteract those trends, and this was the last thing she needed heading into a tough re-election campaign.

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